Expected Value (EV) Calculator
An expected value calculator combines the offered odds with your estimated win probability to show average profit or loss per bet over repeated opportunities. Positive EV means your probability estimate beats the price’s break-even threshold. It does not mean the next wager will win, and inaccurate probability inputs produce misleading results.
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Expected Value (EV) is the average profit or loss you should expect over the long run. Positive EV suggests a bet is worth considering; negative EV suggests you’re paying too much for the price.
This calculator shows EV (in dollars), EV%, and the break-even win probability implied by the odds.
Expected Value Calculator
Frequently asked questions
What does positive EV mean?
It means the wager has a positive average projected return if your probability estimate is accurate and similar opportunities repeat.
Does +EV guarantee a winning bet?
No. A positive-EV wager can lose; EV describes a long-run average, not one outcome.
Where should win probability come from?
Use a calibrated model or a defensible no-vig market estimate, then account for uncertainty rather than guessing.