3-Way No-Vig Calculator (1X2)
A 3-way no-vig calculator normalizes Home, Draw, and Away implied probabilities so the three fair estimates sum to 100%. It is designed for soccer 1X2 and other mutually exclusive three-outcome markets. The result uses proportional, or multiplicative, margin removal; other devig methods can differ in lopsided markets.
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More on 1X2 margins
1X2 fair-odds calculator
Market overround: 8.20%
Worked example: Home +120, Draw +200, Away +240
These are the default prices loaded in the calculator. Each converts to implied probability the usual way: +120 is 45.45%, +200 is 33.33%, and +240 is 29.41%. The three add up to 108.20%, so the market’s overround is 8.20%, well above the 4.76% margin of a standard -110/-110 two-way line.
Dividing each outcome by 108.20% gives fair probabilities of 42.01% for the home win, 30.81% for the draw and 27.18% for the away win, which sum to exactly 100%. As American odds those are +138, +225 and +268: what each outcome would pay with the margin removed.
Why a two-way devig gets soccer wrong
Removing the vig from only the home and away prices, as if the draw did not exist, gives 60.71% home and 39.29% away for this match. Those are not win probabilities. They are draw-no-bet probabilities: the chance of each side winning given that the match does not end level. The real fair chance of a home win here is 42.01%.
The 3-way result also gives fair prices for the derived markets. Draw no bet on the home side is 60.71%, or -155, and the away side +155. Double chance home-or-draw (1X) is 72.82%, or -268; draw-or-away (X2) is 57.99%, or -138. Compare these with what a book offers for those markets to see whether they carry more margin than the 1X2 price.
Margins differ from match to match
A clear favorite priced -150 / +300 / +450 carries a 3.18% overround and devigs to 58.15% / 24.23% / 17.62%, or -139 / +313 / +468 fair. A tight match at +180 / +210 / +170 carries 5.01% and devigs to 34.01% / 30.72% / 35.27%, or +194 / +226 / +184. Run each match separately; margins vary across books and leagues.
Proportional versus additive margin removal
This calculator removes margin in proportion to each outcome’s implied probability. An additive approach subtracts the same 2.73 points (8.20% ÷ 3) from every outcome instead, giving 42.72% / 30.60% / 26.68% for the example: more for the favorite, less for the longshot. The gap is usually small in balanced matches and grows as one side becomes a heavy favorite.
A standard 1X2 market settles on regular time, 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties in knockout matches do not count, which is why the draw stays a live outcome even in a cup tie.
See how this is derived
3-way no-vig questions
What is the overround in a 1X2 market?
The amount by which the three implied probabilities exceed 100%. +120 / +200 / +240 sums to 108.20%, an 8.20% overround.
Can I use a two-way no-vig calculator on a soccer moneyline?
Not for win probabilities. Leaving out the draw produces draw-no-bet probabilities, which overstate each side’s chance of winning.
Does a 1X2 bet include extra time?
No. Standard 1X2 markets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
How do I get fair draw-no-bet odds?
Divide one side’s fair win probability by the sum of both sides’ fair win probabilities. In the example, 42.01% ÷ (42.01% + 27.18%) = 60.71%, or -155.