Sharper Points Research
We Graded 3,552 Sports Betting Model Picks in Public — Here's the Honest Win Rate by Sport
Most betting "experts" show you their wins and quietly delete their losses. We do the opposite: every pick our models generate is graded automatically and published — win or lose. So we ran the numbers on 3,552 graded picks across 12 leagues.
The short version
The honest result across every league: 52.9% win rate, +76.8 units, +2.2% ROI. That clears the break-even bar — but barely, and only because some sports carry the others. Here's the full, un-cherry-picked breakdown.
Why 52.4% is the number that matters
At standard −110 odds, you need to win 52.38% of your bets just to break even after the sportsbook's cut (the "vig"). Anything below that loses money long-term, no matter how it feels. A 50% bettor is a losing bettor. Our 52.9% blended rate is a thin, real edge — and the sport-by-sport spread shows why a single "win rate" headline is almost meaningless.
The honest scorecard, by sport
Win rate = wins ÷ graded picks. Units and ROI use the actual odds captured when each pick was made (the line at pick time), flat 1-unit stakes — not an idealized −110 assumption. Every pick is graded automatically against final scores.
| League | Graded picks | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 2,188 | 55.2% | +54.5 | +2.5% |
| La Liga | 124 | 61.3% | +51.0 | +41.1% |
| NCAAB | 155 | 54.2% | +5.4 | +3.5% |
| NHL | 186 | 53.2% | +0.3 | +0.2% |
| Serie A | 170 | 50.6% | +27.3 | +16.0% |
| UEFA Champions League | 53 | 52.8% | +3.7 | +7.0% |
| EPL | 223 | 46.6% | -8.2 | -3.7% |
| UFC | 95 | 46.3% | -11.7 | -12.3% |
| Ligue 1 | 107 | 43.9% | -11.0 | -10.3% |
| Bundesliga | 140 | 42.1% | -16.0 | -11.4% |
| MLB | 99 | 40.4% | -11.6 | -11.8% |
| International Soccer | 12 | 25.0% | -6.9 | -57.8% |
| All leagues | 3,552 | 52.9% | +76.8 | +2.2% |
Three findings worth your attention
1. Sample size is everything — ignore the flashy small numbers.
La Liga's 61.3% looks incredible, but it's 124 picks. NBA's 55.2% is over 2,188 picks — that's the number you can actually trust. A good rule: be skeptical of any win rate built on fewer than ~500 bets. Variance lies.
2. The proven edge is in NBA.
Over 2,188 graded picks, our NBA models hit 55.2% — nearly 3 points above break-even, good for +54.5 units and +2.5% ROI. That's not a get-rich number; it's what a real, sustainable edge looks like. Anyone promising 65% is selling something.
3. "High confidence" isn't always higher.
Splitting NBA picks by the model's own confidence, our medium-confidence picks (56.2%) actually beat our high-confidence picks (53.6%). A reminder that model calibration matters — and that we publish the data instead of hiding the quirks.
What we're bad at (yes, we're telling you)
MLB (40.4%), Bundesliga (42.1%), and Ligue 1 (43.9%) are below break-even right now. We're not going to pretend otherwise — and we're actively retraining those models. We'd rather show you a model that's underperforming than hide it, because that's the only way our track record means anything: when a model turns the corner, you'll have the receipts that we didn't quietly delete the bad stretch. Transparency isn't a marketing line for us; it's the product.
The takeaway for bettors
- Demand large samples and closing line value, not screenshots of winners.
- A genuine edge is small (1–3% ROI), sport-specific, and only visible over thousands of bets.
- Track everything, win or lose — it's the only way to know if you actually have an edge.
We built free betting calculators and a fully public track record for exactly this. Want the models behind these numbers? Start a free 7-day trial — no credit card required.