Hedge Calculator

Worked example: hedging a +400 ticket at -150

You bet $100 on a +400 outcome (decimal 5.00), and by the time it is close to settling the opposing side is priced at -150 (decimal 1.6667). For equal profit, the hedge stake is the original stake times its decimal odds, divided by the hedge’s decimal odds: $100 × 5.00 ÷ 1.6667 = $300.

If the original bet wins, it pays $400 profit and the $300 hedge loses: +$100. If the hedge wins, it pays $200 profit and the original $100 stake is lost: +$100. You have $400 at risk in total and finish $100 up whichever way it goes.

What locking in a profit costs

A hedge does not create value; it trades upside for certainty. Suppose the -150 hedge is a fair price, meaning your original side now wins 40% of the time. Holding the +400 ticket is worth 0.40 × $400 − 0.60 × $100 = +$100 on average, exactly what the hedge locks in. At a fair price, hedging changes the variance but not the expectation.

Real hedge prices carry vig. If the other side is -170 instead (decimal 1.5882), the equal-profit hedge is $314.81 and locks in $85.19. Against the same +$100 expectation, that certainty costs $14.81. Whether that is worth paying depends on how much of your bankroll the ticket represents, not on how good it feels to lock in a win.

More hedge sizes worked out

$50 on +600, hedged at -200: hedge $233.33 and finish +$66.67 either way. A $20 longshot ticket at +1000 with the opposing side at -250: hedge $157.14 and finish +$42.86 either way. Treat a parlay with one leg left the same way: enter the original parlay stake and the full parlay odds as the initial bet.

Hedging without a price move just pays the vig twice. Bet $100 at -110 and immediately hedge the other side at +100, and the calculator sizes the hedge at $95.45, with a loss of $4.55 whichever side wins.

Covering the stake instead of equalizing profit

This calculator solves for equal profit, but a smaller hedge is a common alternative. To get back only the original $100 if the +400 bet loses, size the -150 hedge so its profit equals $100: $100 ÷ 0.6667 = $150. If the original wins you keep $400 − $150 = $250; if the hedge wins you finish at $0. That keeps more upside than the $300 equal-profit hedge in exchange for a break-even floor instead of a guaranteed +$100.