Bowling Green vs. Ball State Preview: Market & Stats Breakdown

When the Bowling Green Falcons host the Ball State Cardinals on Oct. 17, both teams come in with seven days of rest following their Oct. 10 contests. Bowling Green enters having won back-to-back games against Miami (OH) (24-20) and Sacramento State (38-10), while Ball State looks to rebound from a 45-14 defeat at Northwestern. Analyzing the underlying metrics, team logs, and recent player output provides a clear picture of how these two MAC programs match up.

Line Movement and Market Metrics

The betting market opened with Bowling Green listed as an 8.5-point home favorite before adjusting down two full points to a consensus current spread of -6.5 across most major books, including DraftKings (-115) and FanDuel (-110). Conversely, the point total saw upward momentum, moving from an opening line of 44.5 to a current mark of 47.5.

In head-to-head competition over their last two meetings, Bowling Green earned victories in both, securing a 38-13 road win on Nov. 23, 2024, and a 24-21 home win on Nov. 1, 2023. Because ten-game logs reflect extended scheduling stretches, the recent results for both squads reach back into November 2025. Bowling Green's ten-game record includes late 2025 losses to Buffalo (28-3), Eastern Michigan (27-21), and Akron (19-16) alongside a 45-14 win over UMass. Ball State's ten-game log shows late 2025 losses to Eastern Michigan (24-9), Toledo (38-9), and Miami (OH) (45-24), with a 17-13 win over Kent State.

Falcons Offensive Distribution

Bowling Green's offense over the last four games has been steered by quarterback Jay Kastantin, who has logged 60 completions on 97 pass attempts for 640 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. On the ground, Jay Kastantin has added 20 carries for 56 yards and a rushing score. Ground work in the backfield is anchored by Austin Dendy, who has rushed 51 times for 182 yards and two touchdowns while catching two passes for seven yards. Nakai Amachree adds versatile backfield snaps, totaling 81 rushing yards on 22 carries and eight receptions for 89 yards with one touchdown.

Through the air, pass-catchers display balanced targets. Winn Sharp leads the team in receiving yards over the four-game sample with 12 receptions for 181 yards and a touchdown. Jeremiah Scoby has hauled in 12 receptions for 131 yards, while Brennan Ridley has grabbed 13 passes for 121 yards alongside three carries for 35 yards.

Cardinals Quarterback Split and Stat Totals

Ball State's passing attack has split snaps between two primary signal-callers. Keldric Luster has appeared in three games, recording 58 completions on 95 attempts for 526 passing yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, along with 28 rushing yards on 21 carries. Tyler Mizzell has featured in four games, completing 21 of 34 pass attempts for 229 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions, while rushing 18 times for 28 yards.

In the backfield, TJ Horton provides goal-line finishing, converting 28 rush attempts into 183 yards and four touchdowns. Johnny Thompson Jr. has rushed 25 times for 80 yards while adding seven receptions for 57 yards. Out wide, Donovan Hamilton acts as the top receiving threat with 17 catches for 222 yards and a touchdown over four games. Jabari Smith Jr. has contributed 13 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown across two games.

Player	Team	Touches / Att	Total Yds	TDs
Jay Kastantin	Bowling Green	117 att/car	696	5
Austin Dendy	Bowling Green	53 touches	189	2
Keldric Luster	Ball State	116 att/car	554	3
TJ Horton	Ball State	31 touches	191	4