Author
Jordan Hawkes
Founder and sports betting analytics researcher at Sharper Points
Jordan writes practical, math-first guides for evaluating sportsbook prices and publishes transparent research from Sharper Points’ graded model history.
Research
We Graded 3,552 Sports Betting Model Picks in PublicA dated breakdown of win rate, units, and ROI across 12 leagues, including underperforming models.Guides
Understanding Expected Value (EV) in Sports BettingLearn what expected value is, why it matters for long-term profitability, and how to calculate it for your bets.How to Remove the Vig From Betting OddsLearn what the vig is and how to remove it from betting odds. Our step-by-step guide helps you find no-vig probabilities to identify value bets.Odds → Probability: American Odds Made SimpleLearn how to convert American odds to implied probability, break-even percentage, and understand the impact of the vig. Stop guessing and start finding mathematical value in your bets.How to Shop Lines Across SportsbooksLearn how to shop lines and compare odds across sportsbooks. Our guide explains why half-points matter and how to find the best price for every bet.Spreads vs Moneyline vs Totals: The Big Three ExplainedLearn the difference between spreads, moneylines, and totals. Discover how pricing differs and how to model each market for maximum betting value.Devig Methods Compared: Multiplicative, Additive, Power, and ShinCompare the main methods for removing sportsbook margin, when their fair probabilities differ, and how to use a conservative worst-case estimate.What "Edge" Means (and Why It's Not Guaranteed Profit)Discover what "edge" really means in sports betting. Learn the difference between edge, EV, and win rate, and why variance is the key to long-term profit.Why Closing Line Value (CLV) MattersLearn why CLV is the best predictor of long-term betting success. Understand how to measure it and why it matters more than your win-loss record.What Makes a Model "Good" in Sports BettingLearn how to build a sports betting model that wins. We cover calibration, avoiding overfitting, backtesting pitfalls, and the honest metrics that matter.Common Sports Betting Math MistakesAvoid costly sports betting math mistakes. Learn about parlay odds misconceptions, correlated parlays, and implied probability errors to bet smarter.Bankroll & Unit Sizing BasicsLearn the essentials of bankroll management in betting. Discover why flat staking saves bankrolls and why the Kelly Criterion is a double-edged sword.Responsible Gambling: Setting Limits and Staying in ControlLearn essential responsible gambling practices, how to set betting limits, recognize problem gambling, and get help when needed.