Keyone Jenkins Leads UCF Into Big 12 Clash With Baylor

UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins has completed 70.3 percent of his passes over his last four games, throwing for 971 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions. Over that exact same four-game sample, Baylor passer DJ Lagway has completed just 50.3 percent of his throws (89 of 177) for 1,054 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. That efficiency gap at quarterback sets the stage as the Knights host the Bears with both teams coming off six days of rest.

Passing Efficiency and Target Distribution

Keyone Jenkins has operated with notable accuracy, accumulating his 97 completions on 138 pass attempts while adding 33 carries for 53 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. His primary target over this four-game stretch has been Josh Derry, who leads the UCF receiving corps with 27 catches for 280 yards and three touchdowns. Behind Josh Derry, receiver Tyren Hornes has added 14 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown, alongside three rushing attempts for six yards.

The remaining aerial workload for UCF has been distributed across tight ends and wideouts. Waden Charles has caught 11 passes for 130 yards without a touchdown, while Caden Piening has matched him with 11 catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns. In the backfield, running back Duke Watson has handled the bulk of the rushing volume with 58 carries for 280 yards, though he has not scored a rushing touchdown and has added just three receptions for six yards.

Baylor's Offensive Output and Ground Game

For Baylor, DJ Lagway has logged 28 rushing attempts for nine yards and a touchdown to go with his passing line. Wide receiver Gavin Freeman has been the primary target for the Bears, hauling in 30 receptions for 390 yards over the four-game run, though he remains without a touchdown catch. Louis Brown trails him in receptions, recording 18 catches for 234 yards and one touchdown, while Tony Livingston has added 10 catches for 114 yards and a score.

The Bears' rushing offense over these four games has split opportunities between Caden Knighten and Ryelan Morris. Caden Knighten has logged 33 carries for 179 yards and one touchdown, while also catching one pass for zero yards. Ryelan Morris has provided 29 carries for 140 yards and a touchdown.

Market Context and Recent Trends

Market movement reflects a narrowing expectation for this matchup. The open spread listed UCF as a 16.5-point favorite, but current consensus lines hover near Baylor -1.5, with total points moving up from an opening 35.5 to 48.5. In head-to-head history, Baylor won the most recent meeting 30-3 on November 1, 2025, following a 36-35 victory on September 30, 2023.

Player	Team	Touches/Att	Yds	TDs
Keyone Jenkins	UCF	138 pass / 33 rush	1,024 total	11 total
DJ Lagway	Baylor	177 pass / 28 rush	1,063 total	6 total
Gavin Freeman	Baylor	30 rec	390 rec	0
Josh Derry	UCF	27 rec	280 rec	3
Duke Watson	UCF	58 rush / 3 rec	286 total	0