When Baltimore travels to face Indianapolis on September 13, both teams bring 252 days of rest into the contest. Because this matchup takes place at the start of a new campaign, the available four-game player form logs reach back to the close of the 2025 season through January 4, 2026. Looking back at those late-season tape sessions, no operational baseline stands out quite like the heavy workload logged by Derrick Henry.

Derrick Henry and Baltimore's Ground Engine

Over his final four games of the 2025 stretch, Derrick Henry put together a staggering backfield effort: 85 rushing attempts for 570 yards and 6 touchdowns. That interior presence was complemented by Keaton Mitchell, who provided 112 rushing yards on 28 carries. Operating around that run-game backbone, Lamar Jackson generated 489 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, and 2 interceptions over 3 appearances, adding 42 rushing yards on 8 carries. Tyler Huntley also logged action in 3 games, completing 172 passing yards with 1 touchdown while rushing 13 times for 59 yards.

Out wide, Zay Flowers emerged as the primary explosive weapon down the stretch, turning 18 receptions on 23 targets into 320 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, alongside an 18-yard rushing touchdown on his lone attempt. Tight end Mark Andrews handled the short-to-intermediate volume, catching 10 of 13 targets for 81 yards (with 1 rushing attempt for 3 yards).

Indy's Pass Distribution and Backfield Workload

On the Indianapolis side, the four-game sample from late 2025 was anchored by Jonathan Taylor, who logged 76 rushing carries for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns while adding 11 receptions on 15 targets for 74 yards. Quarterback duties were divided between Philip Rivers—who recorded 544 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in 3 games through December 28—and Riley Leonard, who posted 270 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions across 3 games, plus 21 rushing yards and a touchdown on 3 carries.

The Colts' receiving group displayed defined roles down the stretch:

Player Targets Receptions Yards Touchdowns
Alec Pierce 17 9 234 4
Josh Downs 23 14 173 1
Tyler Warren 28 16 118 0

Alec Pierce posted high-efficiency dynamic play with 4 touchdowns on just 9 catches, while Josh Downs worked as a high-volume target with 14 catches on 23 targets (adding 2 rushing attempts for -2 yards). Tight end Tyler Warren led the entire squad in target volume, drawing 28 passes.

Market Context

The market establishes visiting Baltimore as the road favorite. Moneyline pricing sits at -175 on BetMGM (-180 at Hard Rock Bet), while Indianapolis is listed at +145 (BetMGM) and +150 (Hard Rock Bet). Line movement shows the spread moving from an open of 3.5 down to 3.0, while the point total has shifted downward from 49.5 to 48.0.