When you break down the tape on Baker Mayfield over his last four starts spanning late 2025 through the September 13 opener against Cincinnati, you see a signal-caller carrying a heavy workload for Tampa Bay. Across that four-game sample, Mayfield has generated 910 passing yards with four passing touchdowns against four interceptions, while adding 126 rushing yards and a score on 16 carries. As the Buccaneers host the Cleveland Browns with a game total moving up from an opening 38.5 to 41.5, Mayfield’s volume and target distribution dictate the rhythm of this offense.

High-Volume Target Chains in Tampa Bay

Look closer at how Baker Mayfield allocates his passing volume across his primary options. Over this four-game stretch, Chris Godwin Jr. has been remarkably surgical, turning 19 targets into 17 receptions for 186 yards and a touchdown, while also taking a carry for 3 yards. Tight end Cade Otton provides an equally reliable safety valve, snagging 16 catches on 20 targets for 168 yards and a touchdown.

Out of the backfield, Bucky Irving gives Mayfield a true dual-threat weapon. Irving has logged 62 carries for 220 rushing yards and a touchdown over his last four games, while hauling in 13 of his 15 targets for another 75 yards. Receiver Emeka Egbuka has stepped directly into the rotation with 16 targets and 10 receptions for 131 yards through September 13. Note that while Jalen McMillan features in the multi-game logs with 10 catches for 140 yards on 13 targets over three games, those figures date back to last season’s finish on January 3, 2026, and shouldn't be confused with this season's active form.

Cleveland's Offensive Distribution and Quarterback Logs

On the visitor's side, Cleveland's four-game sample reflects transition under center across seasons. Deshaun Watson helmed the 2026 season opener on September 13 at Jacksonville, throwing for 205 yards, one touchdown, and one interception while scrambling six times for 38 yards. In contrast, Shedeur Sanders appears in the team's historical four-game window with 454 passing yards, two touchdowns, four interceptions, and 95 rushing yards on 11 carries, but those three starts belong entirely to the end of the 2025 season concluding January 4, 2026.

In the passing game, tight end Harold Fannin Jr. has emerged as a productive finisher, converting eight receptions on 11 targets for 85 yards and two receiving touchdowns over three games, plus a 1-yard rushing touchdown. Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy leads Cleveland's target tree across the four-game sample with 21 targets, grabbing 12 passes for 109 yards and adding 5 rushing yards on one attempt. In the backfield, Cleveland has split touches between Raheim Sanders (25 carries, 90 rushing yards; six catches on seven targets for 46 yards) and Quinshon Judkins, who has accumulated 20 rushes for 55 yards along with seven catches on eight targets for 46 yards across two games.

Four-Game Sample Breakdown

Player Team Games (Span) Primary Production Line
Baker Mayfield TB 4 (2025–2026) 910 pass yds, 4 TD / 4 INT, 126 rush yds
Bucky Irving TB 4 (2025–2026) 62 rush att, 220 rush yds, 13 rec, 75 yds
Chris Godwin Jr. TB 4 (2025–2026) 17 rec / 19 tgts, 186 rec yds, 1 TD
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE 3 (2025–2026) 8 rec, 85 yds, 2 rec TD, 1 rush TD
Jerry Jeudy CLE 4 (2025–2026) 12 rec / 21 tgts, 109 rec yds

With both teams entering on seven days of rest following their September 13 contests, Tampa Bay enters as a 7.5-point consensus home favorite. Mayfield’s ability to sustain his short-to-intermediate connection with Chris Godwin Jr. and Cade Otton, alongside Bucky Irving’s heavy backfield usage, remains the central engine powering Tampa Bay's projection.