Newcastle vs. Everton: Form, Model & Odds Preview

Thierno Barry brings the most defined individual spark into this matchup, posting two goals and eight shots on target across his last four appearances for Everton. With Newcastle United lacking recorded recent team results and player form data in our data set, Everton's individual attacking metrics provide the clearest starting signal on the board.

Everton Player Metrics and Attacking Shape

Over a four-game sample, Everton's offensive output has been driven primarily by Thierno Barry's high-volume shooting up front. Supporting him in midfield, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has recorded one goal, one assist, and one shot on target across his four games.

Further down the rotation, Harrison Armstrong has taken two shots on target without scoring in four games, while Jack Grealish has put two shots on target across three appearances. Defensive contributor Jake O'Brien has logged a single appearance with zero shots on target. Because Newcastle United has no player form data reported in our tracking set, Everton represents the entire available individual sample.

Player	Games	Goals	Assists	Shots on Target
Thierno Barry	4	2	0	8
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall	4	1	1	1
Jack Grealish	3	0	0	2
Harrison Armstrong	4	0	0	2

Head-to-Head Sample and Line Movement

The recent four-match head-to-head series between these two sides presents a split set of outcomes. Everton took two victories—winning 3-2 at Newcastle United on February 28, 2026, and 1-0 on May 25, 2025. Newcastle United captured a 4-1 away victory on November 29, 2025, while the sides played to a 0-0 draw on October 5, 2024. Across those four matches, two fixtures finished with five combined goals while the other two produced one or zero, showing substantial variance in a small sample.

In the spread market, line movement shows significant variation across sportsbooks. The opening spread sat at Newcastle United -0.5, but current spreads range from 0.0 at DraftKings and 1Bet to -1.5 at books such as FanDuel, Bovada, and BetRivers.

Model Projections vs. Market Pricing

The model isolates its primary matchup signal on the game total of 2.5 goals, projecting the Under with a 50.12% probability. At the available market odds of 2.230 (+123), the consensus market leans toward the Over, with over odds generally priced between -130 and -160 across major books.

The model views the total as essentially a coin flip at 50.12% for the Under 2.5, creating a notable gap against the 2.230 market price.