Toulouse Injury Update: Mathys Niflore Knee Status

On Nov. 1, 2026, Toulouse player Mathys Niflore had his status updated from a general injury to a specific knee injury, remaining listed as missing fixture. The update leaves the club managing their squad profile ahead of an upcoming match against Olympique de Marseille. Based strictly on the available numbers, here is an analytical breakdown of how Niflore's availability interacts with Toulouse's baseline metrics.

Status Change Breakdown

The status change for Mathys Niflore shifted his designation from a generic injury listing to a missing fixture driven by a knee injury. Both the detail update event and the current injury snapshot were observed at 4:47 AM ET on Nov. 1, 2026, confirming that his active state is a missing fixture with a knee injury and no specified expected return date.

Player Profile and Squad Analytics

Analysis of Niflore's recent individual workload shows limited output across a brief sample window. Between Sept. 3 and Sept. 12, Niflore logged two games, averaging 55.0 minutes per match. In those minutes, he recorded zero goals, zero assists, zero shots, zero shots on target, and zero interceptions.

From a team perspective, analyzing Toulouse's recent form across four games between Sept. 3 and Oct. 10 reveals a record of one win and two draws. Over that stretch, Toulouse averaged 1.75 goals scored per game and allowed an average of 1.75 goals per game. Their team performance metrics include 14.8 total shots per game, 5.8 shots on target per game, and an average possession share of 52.0 percent.

In terms of quantitative analysis, Niflore's absence removes a player who recorded zero shots or key defensive plays in his 55.0 average minutes, meaning Toulouse's recent offensive rate of 1.75 goals per match was sustained largely independent of his individual statistical contribution.

Market Lines and Model Evaluation

Toulouse travel to face home side Olympique de Marseille on Nov. 1, 2026, at 2:45 PM ET. The market lists Olympique de Marseille with a spread of -0.5, while the game total is set at 2.5 goals.

Metric / Market	Value / Odds
Game Total Line	2.5
Model Over Probability	66.74%
Market Over Odds	1.641
Olympique de Marseille Spread	-0.5

Our model projects a 66.74 percent probability (0.6674) on the over for the 2.5 goal line. The market price for the over sits at 1.641. Placing the model probability of 66.74 percent directly beside the market price of 1.641 highlights the gap between the quantitative projection and consensus market pricing for overall match volume.