NBA Model Audit: Oct 20-22 Prop Results

Across seven NBA games from October 20 through October 22, the xgb_prop_v4 model produced a 9-2 record with +5.67 units gained across 11 total prop selections, translating to an 81.8% win rate. A three-day sample of player props is a tiny slice of an 82-game regular season and should be treated as a routine audit rather than a definitive statement on long-term predictive power.

Early-Week Slates: Oct. 20–21

The window opened on October 20 with the model's only miss of the first two days. Victor Wembanyama went over his 11.5 rebound line by grabbing 13.0 rebounds in the San Antonio Spurs' 116-104 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, resulting in a 1.00-unit loss on the under prop. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32 points for Oklahoma City in that win, while Stephon Castle logged 24 points for San Antonio.

On October 21, the model swept all five props:

• Dennis Schröder: Kept under his 6.5 assist line with 6.0 assists (+0.78 units) in the Brooklyn Nets' 110-103 loss to the Charlotte Hornets. Julius Randle had 33 points and Michael Porter Jr. scored 26 points for Brooklyn.
• Jaxson Hayes: Stayed under 6.5 rebounds with 5.0 (+0.65 units) in a 123-103 Memphis Grizzlies victory against the Utah Jazz. Ty Jerome scored 45 points for Memphis, while Keyonte George scored 22 points for Utah.
• Derik Queen: Cleared his 8.5 point line with 10.0 points (+1.00 unit) in a 123-120 New Orleans Pelicans loss to the Indiana Pacers. Pascal Siakam posted 30 points and Tyrese Haliburton recorded 12 assists for Indiana, offsetting 23 points from Dejounte Murray.
• Norman Powell: Remained under his 19.5 point line with 15.0 points (+0.91 units) in the Toronto Raptors' 135-92 win over the Chicago Bulls. Scottie Barnes, Kawhi Leonard, and Immanuel Quickley each scored 23 points for Toronto.
• Jamal Shead: Fell well short of his 6.5 point threshold with 2.0 points (+0.83 units) in the same Raptors blowout.

Late-Window Sweeps and Plus-Money Hits

The October 22 slate comprised five props across two matchups where game scores were not recorded in the window data. In the Denver Nuggets versus Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, Jalen Williams went over his 1.5 three-pointers line with 2.0 (-1.00 unit). The model rebounded on that same game with under hits from Christian Braun (1.0 three-pointer on a 1.5 line, +0.57 units) and Cason Wallace (1.0 assist on a 2.5 line, +0.66 units).

The final two calls came from the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Philadelphia 76ers, both returning plus-money payouts. Jarrett Allen held under 7.5 rebounds with 7.0 at +117 odds (+1.17 units), and James Harden stayed under 6.5 assists with 5.0 at +110 odds (+1.10 units).

Settled Prop Summary

Player	Market Line	Side	Actual	Price	Units
Victor Wembanyama	Rebounds 11.5	Under	13.0	+100	-1.00
Dennis Schröder	Assists 6.5	Under	6.0	-128	+0.78
Jaxson Hayes	Rebounds 6.5	Under	5.0	-155	+0.65
Derik Queen	Points 8.5	Over	10.0	+100	+1.00
Norman Powell	Points 19.5	Under	15.0	-110	+0.91
Jamal Shead	Points 6.5	Under	2.0	-120	+0.83
Jalen Williams	3PM 1.5	Under	2.0	-220	-1.00
Christian Braun	3PM 1.5	Under	1.0	-175	+0.57
Cason Wallace	Assists 2.5	Under	1.0	-152	+0.66
Jarrett Allen	Rebounds 7.5	Under	7.0	+117	+1.17
James Harden	Assists 6.5	Under	5.0	+110	+1.10

While a 9-2 run across three days represents a profitable accounting period, three days of prop results remain an insufficient foundation for declaring long-term model superiority or weakness.