NBA Model Audit: 8-4 Record Across Oct 29-30 Window

Across nine games played from Oct. 29 to Oct. 30, 2026, the tracking models posted an 8-4 record (+2.04 units) across 12 total picks for a 66.7% win rate. With zero pushes in the window, net profits were driven primarily by game spreads, while player props finished essentially flat. A two-day stretch of NBA basketball represents a small sample size, so these figures should be evaluated strictly as a short-window recap rather than conclusive evidence of model calibration.

Spread Perfection via Meta_v2

The meta_v2 model posted a 2-0 record on spread calls, generating +2.03 units of gain across two home selections.

Dallas covered its 5.5-point spread in a 116-111 victory over Houston (+1.08 units at +108 odds). Kyrie Irving led the Mavericks with 35 points and 9 assists, complemented by Cooper Flagg scoring 33 points with 9 rebounds. Houston kept the margin tight behind 28 points from Kevin Durant.

Golden State covered its 1.5-point line in a 112-95 victory against Los Angeles (+0.95 units at -105 odds). Stephen Curry poured in 31 points for the Warriors, overcoming a 37-point effort from Luka Dončić for the Lakers.

Prop Gains and Odds Friction

The xgb_prop_v4 model delivered a 6-4 record across 10 player props, returning +0.01 units. Though the 60.0% win rate was solid, heavy vigorish on several under selections offset gains.

Plus-money prop picks generated the highest returns of the slate: - Paul Reed went under 8.5 rebounds, finishing with 4.0 in Detroit's 110-94 win over Brooklyn (+1.15 units at +115 odds). - Draymond Green stayed under 6.5 points, recording 2.0 in Golden State's victory (+1.0 unit at +100 odds).

Moderate-juice under picks added consistent incremental value: - Andrew Nembhard stayed under 3.5 rebounds with 2.0 (+0.61 units at -165 odds) in Miami's 145-125 win over Indiana. Giannis Antetokounmpo dominated that contest with 31 points, 18 rebounds, and 10 assists, supported by Bam Adebayo scoring 27 points. - Ty Jerome stayed under 6.5 assists with 3.0 (+0.71 units at -140 odds) during Memphis' 124-103 win against Portland. - Domantas Sabonis stayed under 0.5 three-pointers made with 0.0 (+0.20 units at -488 odds) and Zion Williamson stayed under 0.5 three-pointers made with 0.0 (+0.33 units at -300 odds) in New Orleans' 132-120 win against Sacramento.

Examining the Four Prop Losses

Four prop selections failed to cover, with high negative odds amplifying the unit impact:

• Zach Edey went over 0.5 three-pointers made by landing on 1.0 (-1.0 unit at -380 odds).
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker went over 18.5 points by scoring 25.0 (-1.0 unit at -111 odds) in Cleveland's 114-111 loss to Atlanta, where Onyeka Okongwu scored 29 points for the Hawks.
• Desmond Bane exceeded his 3.5 assists threshold by dishing 6.0 (-1.0 unit at +100 odds) in Orlando's 121-114 win over Toronto. Bane also scored 28 points and Franz Wagner recorded 11 assists for Orlando, while Scottie Barnes scored 41 points for Toronto.
• Sion James went over 5.5 points by scoring 6.0 (-1.0 unit at -126 odds) in Charlotte's 95-79 loss to Washington, a game where Anthony Davis recorded 25 points and 13 rebounds.

Market	Model	Picks	Wins	Losses	Units
Spread	meta_v2	2	2	0	+2.03
Prop	xgb_prop_v4	10	6	4	+0.01
Total	—	12	8	4	+2.04