NFL Power Rankings Week 4: Colts surge while Saints tumble

Week 4 produced a dramatic reshaping across the middle of the board, headlined by the New Orleans Saints suffering a 12-spot drop down to No. 26. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts generated the week's largest upward move by climbing 10 spots after outperforming their expected point margin by double digits. At the top of the board, the Jacksonville Jaguars retain the No. 1 ranking following a road win against a top-12 opponent. Our power ratings measure each team's strength in points per game against an average NFL team on a neutral field.

Top Five Leaders

No. 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1, +2.38 rating) hold the top spot following a 22-17 victory against the No. 11 Cincinnati Bengals, outperforming their pregame expected margin of 0.7 points by 4.3 points. Jacksonville features balanced efficiency, ranking fifth in offensive EPA per play (0.09) and fifth in defensive EPA allowed per play (-0.028). On the Week 4 injury report, defensive tackle Albert Regis and cornerback Montaric Brown were listed as Questionable with elbow and hamstring injuries, respectively.

No. 2 San Francisco 49ers (4-0, +2.31 rating) sit 0.07 points behind Jacksonville after defeating the No. 20 Denver Broncos 24-14 at home, covering their pregame expectation by 6.86 points. San Francisco boasts a league-best offensive EPA per play of 0.144 despite defensive absences. Defensive tackle James Thompson Jr. and defensive end Nick Bosa were listed as Out on the Week 4 injury report with ankle and knee injuries.

No. 3 Chicago Bears (3-1, +2.06 rating) maintained their position by handling the No. 22 New York Jets 23-12, beating their pregame expected margin of 3.0 points by 8.0 points. Chicago pairs the sixth-ranked defense (-0.022 EPA allowed per play) with the ninth-ranked offense (0.063 EPA per play). Tackle Braxton Jones and quarterback Caleb Williams were both listed as Out on the Week 4 injury report, with Jones subsequently moved to the reserve list.

No. 4 Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, +1.64 rating) kept their rank after a 30-27 road win over the No. 7 Las Vegas Raiders, beating an expected margin of -0.57 points. Kansas City combines the sixth-ranked offense (0.086 EPA per play) with the ninth-ranked defense (-0.018 EPA allowed per play). Tackle Josh Simmons was listed as Out on the Week 4 injury report with a back injury.

No. 5 Minnesota Vikings (4-0, +1.37 rating) complete the top five following a 15-10 home victory against the No. 32 Miami Dolphins, exceeding their 4.5-point expected margin. Minnesota relies on a league-best defense that ranks first in EPA allowed per play (-0.089) to offset an offensive rank of 28th (-0.047 EPA per play). Punter Brett Thorson and cornerback Charles Demmings were listed as Out on the Week 4 injury report with hamstring injuries.

Major Risers and Fallers

No. 16 Indianapolis Colts (2-2, +0.03 rating) jumped 10 spots, driven primarily by their own game after securing a 30-13 road victory over the No. 31 Washington Commanders. Indianapolis beat its pregame expected margin of -0.89 points by 17.89 points, generating a 0.84 rating gain from its performance. Wide receivers Ashton Dulin and Keenan Allen were both listed as Questionable on the Week 4 injury report.

No. 14 Atlanta Falcons (2-2, +0.30 rating) climbed nine places due to their own play in a 45-24 away win over the No. 26 New Orleans Saints. Atlanta outperformed a pregame expectation of -1.71 points by 22.71 points, raising its rating by 1.11 points. Linebacker Divine Deablo and defensive end Samson Ebukam were listed as Questionable on the Week 4 injury report.

No. 15 New York Giants (3-1, +0.05 rating) moved up five spots after defeating the No. 29 Arizona Cardinals 36-24, topping their 1.37-point expected margin by 10.63 points. Linebacker Brian Burns was moved to the reserve list prior to the game.

No. 26 New Orleans Saints (1-3, -1.09 rating) suffered the edition's largest drop, falling 12 spots after a 24-45 home loss to the No. 14 Atlanta Falcons. New Orleans missed its pregame expected margin of 1.71 points by 22.71 points, costing the team 1.07 rating points from its own play. Linebackers Anfernee Jennings and Carl Granderson were listed as Out on the Week 4 injury report.

No. 22 New York Jets (1-3, -0.72 rating) fell five places following a 12-23 loss to the No. 3 Chicago Bears, falling short of their -3.0 pregame expectation by 8.0 points. Wide receiver Adonai Mitchell and running back Breece Hall were listed as Out on the Week 4 injury report.

No. 31 Washington Commanders (1-3, -1.64 rating) dropped four spots after a 13-30 home loss to the No. 16 Indianapolis Colts, missing a 0.89-point expected margin by 17.89 points. Quarterback Jayden Daniels and guard Sam Cosmi were listed as Out on the Week 4 injury report.

The full rankings

Previous ranks are from our Week 3 edition.

Rank	Team	Record	Rating	Last	Move
1	Jacksonville Jaguars	3-1	+2.38	1	–
2	San Francisco 49ers	4-0	+2.31	2	–
3	Chicago Bears	3-1	+2.06	3	–
4	Kansas City Chiefs	4-0	+1.64	4	–
5	Minnesota Vikings	4-0	+1.37	5	–
6	Seattle Seahawks	3-1	+1.36	6	–
7	Las Vegas Raiders	3-1	+0.95	7	–
8	Baltimore Ravens	3-1	+0.82	10	▲ 2
9	Buffalo Bills	3-1	+0.75	8	▼ 1
10	Carolina Panthers	2-2	+0.59	11	▲ 1
11	Cincinnati Bengals	2-2	+0.46	9	▼ 2
12	Los Angeles Rams	2-2	+0.43	12	–
13	Dallas Cowboys	2-2	+0.31	13	–
14	Atlanta Falcons	2-2	+0.30	23	▲ 9
15	New York Giants	3-1	+0.05	20	▲ 5
16	Indianapolis Colts	2-2	+0.03	26	▲ 10
17	New England Patriots	2-2	−0.14	18	▲ 1
18	Detroit Lions	2-2	−0.35	15	▼ 3
19	Pittsburgh Steelers	2-2	−0.43	19	–
20	Denver Broncos	2-2	−0.46	16	▼ 4
21	Cleveland Browns	3-1	−0.49	22	▲ 1
22	New York Jets	1-3	−0.72	17	▼ 5
23	Philadelphia Eagles	2-2	−0.82	21	▼ 2
24	Houston Texans	0-4	−0.94	24	–
25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-4	−0.97	25	–
26	New Orleans Saints	1-3	−1.09	14	▼ 12
27	Green Bay Packers	2-2	−1.28	31	▲ 4
28	Tennessee Titans	0-4	−1.36	29	▲ 1
29	Arizona Cardinals	1-3	−1.46	28	▼ 1
30	Los Angeles Chargers	0-4	−1.55	30	–
31	Washington Commanders	1-3	−1.64	27	▼ 4
32	Miami Dolphins	0-4	−2.11	32	–

How our rankings work

Each team's current strength, in points per game against an average NFL team on a neutral field. A rating of +3.0 means about three points better than average.

Final scores of NFL regular-season games played in the 365 days before the rating clock, so early-season ratings still lean on last season. Postseason games are not used.

A game's weight halves every 60 days. Each week the newest games enter at full weight while older games fade, and games more than 365 days old drop out.

Injuries, roster moves, betting lines, yardage and EPA are not inputs. Offensive and defensive EPA per play are descriptive context. Injury and roster reports are editorial context, shown with their source week and the time we observed them.

Ratings as of Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 12:00 p.m. ET, methodology version 1.0.0. Injury and roster context: NFL injury reports and weekly rosters via nflverse, checked Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 6:03 a.m. ET.