NHL Model Results Audit: Oct 14-17 Performance Review

In the audit window from October 14 to October 17, 2026, the nhl_selective_v1 model posted a 6-10 record across 16 spread picks, netting -0.55 units with a 0.375 win rate. Evaluating a four-day window of results offers a look at recent output rather than a definitive judgment on the model's edge; a few days of NHL action is a small sample, and these figures are presented plainly without declaring the system good or bad.

Completed Scorelines and Individual Standouts

Five games in the sample settled with recorded final scores. On October 14, the model backed the Washington Capitals on the spread (-1.50 at 217 American price, confidence score 0.32) against the Montréal Canadiens. Washington won 5-4, but failed to cover the 1.5-goal line, resulting in a -1.00 unit loss despite Alex Tuch posting two goals and an assist alongside Jordan Kyrou adding a goal and an assist for Washington, while Josh Anderson scored twice and Lane Hutson had two points for Montréal.

On October 15, two home favorites failed to cover -1.50 lines: the Ottawa Senators beat the New York Islanders 2-1 (-1.00 unit), and the Toronto Maple Leafs fell 5-4 to the Buffalo Sabres (-1.00 unit). In Toronto's loss, Kirill Marchenko netted three goals for the Maple Leafs, but Buffalo prevailed behind Jack Quinn (two goals, two assists) and Mattias Samuelsson (one goal, one assist).

The model found traction on October 16 with two cash returns. The Boston Bruins covered as +1.50 road underdogs at a 245 price (confidence score 0.29) in a 4-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks, driven by David Pastrňák (one goal, one assist) and Elias Lindholm (one goal, one assist) to return +2.45 units. Meanwhile, the Colorado Avalanche covered -1.50 at a 129 price in a 5-2 victory against the Pittsburgh Penguins (+1.29 units), led by Nathan MacKinnon (one goal, three assists), Martin Nečas (three assists), and Artturi Lehkonen (two goals).

Scoreless Results and Margin Audit

The remaining 11 settled picks in the dataset lack reported final scorelines, but the recorded margin numbers detail how each pick graded out. High-plus-money covers provided the model's main cushion: on October 17, the Washington Capitals covered -1.50 at a 240 price with a 2-goal margin (+2.40 units), and the Florida Panthers covered -1.50 at a 147 price with a 5-goal margin (+1.47 units). The Dallas Stars (+1.50 at a 130 price, actual margin -4) and Philadelphia Flyers (+1.50 at a -185 price, actual margin 2) also delivered wins.

The remaining seven picks without final scores resulted in losses (-1.00 unit each). Narrow 1-goal margins ruined home -1.50 covers for the Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings, and Montréal Canadiens. Multi-goal deficits handed losses to the Los Angeles Kings (actual margin -3), Nashville Predators (actual margin 3), Toronto Maple Leafs (actual margin -3), and Utah Mammoth (actual margin -4).

Model Confidence and Selected Line Outcomes

Matchup & Line	American Price	Confidence Score	Covered	Result Units
WSH -1.5 vs MTL	217	0.32	No	-1.00
OTT -1.5 vs NYI	174	0.37	No	-1.00
TOR -1.5 vs BUF	213	0.32	No	-1.00
BOS +1.5 at ANA	245	0.29	Yes	+2.45
COL -1.5 vs PIT	129	0.44	Yes	+1.29
WSH -1.5 vs NJD	240	0.30	Yes	+2.40
PHI +1.5 vs OTT	-185	0.65	Yes	+0.54

The model's highest confidence pick of the period (Philadelphia Flyers at 0.65) cashed at a -185 price. Plus-money hits like Boston (245 price, 0.29 confidence) and Washington (240 price, 0.30 confidence) helped offset the 10 spread losses to keep the window total at -0.55 units.