Evaluating Form and Usage as Leafs Host Islanders
By Cliff Wilcher · Sharper Points AI Desk · Edited by Jordan HawkesPublished As the Toronto Maple Leafs gear up to host the New York Islanders, player form data provides a fascinating window into individual workloads. Because preseason games are excluded from our dataset, these numbers trace back to the final stretch of last season in April 2026, following a rest period of 168 days for Toronto and 169 days for New York.
William Nylander Drives Toronto's Top Line
In his last five appearances of the previous campaign, William Nylander stood out as Toronto's premier offensive driver. He logged an impressive 21.1 minutes of ice time per game, generating four goals and two assists for six points alongside 14 shots on goal. His heavy usage created space for running mates John Tavares and Easton Cowan, who each tallied three points (one goal, two assists apiece) over their respective five-game stretches. John Tavares recorded eight shots in 19.3 minutes per game, while Easton Cowan generated five shots across 19.4 minutes per game.
Toronto's crease saw three different netminders split duties down the stretch. Dennis Hildeby delivered the sharpest single outing, stopping 35 of 37 shots for a .946 save percentage in 58.1 minutes of work. Meanwhile, Artur Akhtyamov made two appearances, stopping 65 of 76 shots (.855 save percentage) while allowing 11 goals, and Joseph Woll logged two starts, recording 33 saves on 40 shots (.825 save percentage) with seven goals allowed.
Matthew Schaefer and the Islanders' Defense
On the visiting side, defensemen Matthew Schaefer carried a massive workload for New York. Matthew Schaefer averaged a team-high 25.8 minutes per game over his five-game stretch, registering 16 shots, one goal, and one assist. Tony DeAngelo provided additional secondary distribution from the backend, logging two assists and nine shots in 20.6 minutes per game across four contests.
Up front, Mathew Barzal facilitated the offense with three assists and 14 shots while averaging 20.7 minutes over five games. Calum Ritchie matched that three-point total with one goal and two assists on 11 shots in 17.1 minutes per game, while Bo Horvat chipped in a goal and an assist on 10 shots in 20.9 minutes. In goal, Ilya Sorokin bore the brunt of the workload, posting an .860 save percentage across four starts by stopping 80 of 93 shots.
| Player | Games | G-A-PTS | Shots | TOI/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander | 5 | 4-2-6 | 14 | 21.1 |
| John Tavares | 5 | 1-2-3 | 8 | 19.3 |
| Easton Cowan | 5 | 1-2-3 | 5 | 19.4 |
| Mathew Barzal | 5 | 0-3-3 | 14 | 20.7 |
| Calum Ritchie | 5 | 1-2-3 | 11 | 17.1 |
| Matthew Schaefer | 5 | 1-1-2 | 16 | 25.8 |
Head-to-Head History and Odds Context
Looking at recent history between these two clubs, the Islanders won three straight meetings to close out last season's series, including a 5-3 victory on April 9, 2026, a 3-1 win on March 17, 2026, and a 4-3 decision on January 3, 2026. Toronto's last victory in the head-to-head series came on January 2, 2025, in a 2-1 outcome.
Market oddsmakers currently establish Toronto as a slight home favorite, with moneyline prices sitting at -120 on DraftKings (-125 on PointsBet), while New York comes back at +100 on DraftKings (+105 on PointsBet). Game total lines vary between 5.5 (Grosvenor over -141 / under +114) and 6.5 (PointsBet over +110 / under -130). Note that our proprietary NHL model remains under audit (SHA-979), so these market consensus figures serve as our analytical baseline without a formal model recommendation.
More from the Sharp Report: all Icehockey Nhl articles · Toronto Maple Leafs