Fiorentina vs Atalanta: Player Form and Model Projections

Nikola Krstović has ignited Atalanta's attack over a four-game stretch, generating five goals and two assists on seven shots on target. Fiorentina answers with Álex Jiménez, who has delivered two goals on two shots on target across his own four-game sample. With team result logs, head-to-head history, and rest days unrecorded in the dataset, individual player metrics provide the primary window into both squads ahead of this fixture.

Evaluating Individual Player Samples

Atalanta's recent attacking data features multiple active contributors. Behind Nikola Krstović and his seven total goal involvements in four appearances, Éderson Silva has recorded one goal and four shots on target over four matches. Elif Elmas has added one goal and one assist on three shots on target in two games, while Franck Kessié has scored once on two shots on target across two matches. Davide Zappacosta rounds out the group with one assist in two games.

Fiorentina's player sample relies on efficient finishing from Álex Jiménez, who has converted both of his shots on target into goals over four matches. Cher Ndour has provided secondary creation with one assist and two shots on target across four games. Defender Marin Pongračić registered one goal on his sole shot on target in two appearances. Meanwhile, Arthur Atta and Beto have each logged one match without recording a goal or an assist.

Market Movement and Total Lines

The spread opened at 0.0 and moved to -0.5 in favor of home side Fiorentina across several sportsbooks. For instance, DraftKings lists Fiorentina -0.5 at +125 with Atalanta at -150, while Lowvig sets the -0.5 spread odds at +131 for Fiorentina and -162 for Atalanta. Alternative spread lines are also available in the market, including Kalshi at -1.5 (+331 for Fiorentina, -404 for Atalanta) and FanDuel at -1.5 (+350 for Fiorentina, -550 for Atalanta).

The game total opened at 2.5 goals and remains at 2.5 at most shops. Market pricing leans toward the Over on the 2.5 line, ranging from -154 at 1xbet to -190 at Fliff, while Under 2.5 sits between +114 at Bovada and +146 at Matchbook. Select sportsbooks like Lowvig and BetOnline offer a higher total line of 3.0, priced at -106 for the Over and -115 for the Under.

Model Projections vs. Market Prices

The analytical model evaluated two distinct markets for this match, producing projections on the pick-line spread and the game total.

On the spread, the model projects Atalanta on a 0.0 pick line at a 0.5574 probability (55.74%), comparing that against market odds of 2.240. On the total, the model projects Under 2.5 goals at a 0.4997 probability (49.97%), paired against market odds of 2.200.

Pick Type	Pick Side	Pick Line	Model Probability	Market Odds
Spread	Atalanta	0.0	55.74%	2.240
Total	Under	2.5	49.97%	2.200