Model Audit: Dixon-Coles Model Nets 3.88 Units

The dixon_coles_v1 model finished the four-day window from October 25 to October 28 with a 27-22-6 record across 55 picks in 31 soccer games, generating +3.88 net units and a 0.551 win rate. Market segmentation was the defining story of the slate: game totals delivered a +4.44 unit profit (16 wins, 11 losses, 1 push across 28 picks), while point spreads lagged slightly at -0.56 units (11 wins, 11 losses, 5 pushes across 27 picks).

High-Yield Calls in Goal Totals

The model found its strongest returns on totals where it identified mispriced long-shots or high-probability overs. In Ligue 1, Paris Saint Germain’s 2-0 victory over Lyon paid out on an under 2.5 pick where the model pegged the probability at 0.4457 against a 3.100 decimal price, netting +2.10 units. A similar under 2.5 call landed in Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Brighton, where a 0.4122 model probability cleared a 2.480 decimal line for +1.48 units.

The model also capitalized on higher-probability overs. Rennes' 3-0 win over Strasbourg cleared an over 2.5 line (0.7726 model probability vs. 1.444 decimal price) with help from Sebastian Szymański, who scored two goals. Meanwhile, Inter’s 2-1 win over Fiorentina covered the over 2.5 line (0.7626 model probability vs. 1.440 decimal price) to add incremental gains.

Spread Volatility and Standout Pitch Performances

Spreads were far more mixed, though key underdogs delivered. In El Clásico, Real Madrid won 2-1 behind two goals from Kylian Mbappé, easily covering the +1.5 spread (0.6069 model probability vs. 1.746 decimal price). In Serie A, Frosinone covered +0.5 in a chaotic 4-4 draw at Atalanta (0.5773 model probability vs. 2.150 decimal price). That match featured two goals and an assist from Nikola Krstović for Atalanta, while Romano Schmid scored twice for Frosinone. However, the model lost its under 2.5 total on that same fixture (0.3955 model probability vs. 2.910 decimal price).

Defensive blowouts sank other spread picks. Athletic Club defeated Getafe 4-0, invalidating a Getafe +0.5 play (0.5515 model probability vs. 2.200 decimal price) as Álex Berenguer racked up one goal and three assists. AS Roma topped Cagliari 4-2—busting a Cagliari +1.5 pick (0.5679 model probability vs. 1.855 decimal price)—with Emanuele Lulli contributing a goal and an assist.

Evaluating the Sample Size

In total, 55 picks settled across 31 games in this window, including 15 graded picks not listed individually in detail and one graded pick that settled without a final score in the sample. While a +3.88 unit return provides a positive snapshot, four days of results represent a small sample size that neither proves nor disproves the model's long-term market edge.