Across 79 picks on 24 soccer matches from August 22 through August 28, 2026, the model finished with a 36-43 record and a loss of 3.72 units. Spread markets salvaged a slight positive output at +0.65 units on a 17-22 mark, while total markets dragged down the ledger, dropping 4.37 units on 19 wins and 21 losses. A seven-day window represents a tiny sample size in market modeling, serving as a snapshot of price discrepancies rather than proof of long-term edge.

Spread Success and High-Odds Coverages

The strongest returns of the window came from spread selections where model probabilities diverged significantly from longer market prices. In Brentford's 3-0 victory over Tottenham, the market offered decimal odds of 4.000 (an implied probability of 25.0%) on Brentford -1.5. Dixon-Coles v1 posted a model probability of 0.3242 and Ensemble v1 assigned 0.3146. Both covered cleanly, yielding 3.00 units apiece. The model also found value on Brentford -0.5 at 2.080 decimal odds (Dixon-Coles v1 0.5330, Ensemble v1 0.5244), netting +1.08 units on each pick.

Similarly, Leeds produced positive spread returns in a 1-0 away victory over Nottingham Forest. At a 0.0 line and a 2.150 decimal price, Dixon-Coles v1 (0.4815 probability) and Ensemble v1 (0.4854 probability) yielded +1.15 units each, while the 0.5 spread at 1.599 decimal odds added another +0.60 units per model.

Over/Under Splits and Goal Outliers

Totals provided the primary drag on performance during the window. The largest divergence between projected total and actual match script occurred in Lens' 5-2 victory over Auxerre. Both Dixon-Coles v1 (0.5978 probability) and Ensemble v1 (0.5899 probability) backed under 2.5 goals at 2.310 decimal odds. Instead, Florian Thauvin scored two goals and added an assist, while Ismaëlo Ganiou scored once to push the total far past the line, resulting in a -2.00 unit loss across both model picks.

Market Picks Wins Losses Units
Spread 39 17 22 +0.65
Total 40 19 21 -4.37
Total Ledger 79 36 43 -3.72

In Atletico Madrid's 2-2 draw with Villarreal, model variants split on the total line of 2.5. Dixon-Coles v1 backed over 2.5 at 1.885 decimal odds (0.5379 probability) for a +0.89 unit gain, while Ensemble v1 backed under 2.5 at 2.120 odds (0.4842 probability) for a 1.00 unit loss. On the pitch, Giuliano Simeone recorded a goal and an assist for Atletico Madrid, while Georges Mikautadze scored for Villarreal to total four goals.

Contextualizing Short-Term Outcomes

Dixon-Coles v1 generated 41 picks in this window, while Ensemble v1 generated 38 picks. Overall, the 45.6% win rate across 24 games reflects expected short-term variance in soccer betting markets. A handful of match outcomes—such as high-scoring outbursts or unexpected clean sheets—can swing unit totals over a small sample of under 80 picks without signaling a change in baseline model efficacy.