Across a four-day window from August 29 through September 1, 2026, the dixon_coles_v1 model posted a 24-25-0 record across 49 settled picks in 29 soccer games, generating +1.26 units of total profit despite a sub-.500 winning rate of 49.0%. A small sample of results across several days cannot establish or disprove a model's long-term edge, but auditing individual outcomes reveals how market pricing shaped the net return.

Market Breakdown

The card's net positive return was built entirely in the spread market, where high-priced underdog covers offset a slight deficit on game totals.

Market Picks Record Win % Units
Spread 24 12-12-0 50.0% +1.47
Total 25 12-13-0 48.0% -0.21
Overall 49 24-25-0 49.0% +1.26

Pricing Divergences and Outlier Covers

The largest single-game return came in Spain, where the model's projected probability diverged sharply from bookmakers' pricing. In Deportivo La Coruna against Valencia, the model assigned a 0.1002 probability to Deportivo La Coruna on the -1.5 spread line, priced at a 5.250 decimal odds. Deportivo La Coruna secured a 3-1 home victory to cover the margin, adding +4.25 units on the call.

Other high-probability spread selections landed with narrower profit margins. Levante UD covered as a -1.5 home side (0.7875 model probability, 1.195 decimal price) in a 5-2 win over Real Betis, while the Over 2.5 total (0.5033 model probability, 2.010 price) also hit for +1.01 units. Brugui scored twice, supported by a goal and an assist each from Enzo Bardeli and Olasagasti.

In Serie A, Frosinone covered +1.0 (0.6141 model probability, 1.769 price) via a 3-0 victory at Fiorentina (+0.77 units), while the Over 2.5 total (0.2998 model probability, 1.862 price) cashed for +0.86 units. Antonio Raimondo struck twice, alongside a goal and an assist from Gabriele Bracaglia.

Match Highlights and Standout Individual Performances

In Germany, Eintracht Frankfurt earned a 3-3 draw against Union Berlin, cashing Frankfurt +0.5 (0.6980 model probability, 1.633 price, +0.63 units). Younes Ebnoutalib recorded a hat trick for Frankfurt, while Leopold Querfeld posted a goal and an assist for Union Berlin. Elsewhere in the Bundesliga, Yuito Suzuki scored three goals and Igor Matanović recorded a goal and an assist for Freiburg.

In Ligue 1, Angers covered +0.5 (0.5605 model probability, 1.893 price, +0.89 units) in a 3-1 away win at Auxerre, anchored by Amine El Ouazzani (one goal, one assist). In La Liga, Atletico Madrid won 3-1 at Sevilla, where Over 2.5 (0.5183 model probability, 2.010 price) covered (+1.01 units) behind two goals from Álex Baena.

Not every high-scoring match went the model's way. Chelsea defeated Brighton 4-3, causing losses on Brighton +0.5 (0.6058 model probability, 1.870 price, -1.00 unit) and Under 2.5 (0.4584 model probability, 2.460 price, -1.00 unit), despite João Pedro delivering a goal and an assist for Chelsea.

Meanwhile, speculative longshot spread bets failed to cash. Monaco defeated Marseille 2-0 but missed the -2.5 spread (0.0980 model probability, 15.920 price, -1.00 unit), while Stade Brestois 29 drew 2-2 with Toulouse on a -2.5 line (0.0830 model probability, 18.360 price, -1.00 unit).