Across seven soccer matches settled between September 2 and September 4, 2026, the dixon_coles_v1 model finished with 3 wins, 5 losses, and 0 pushes across 8 total picks, netting -2.56 units with a 0.375 win rate. Spread selections accounted for 5 picks (2 wins, 3 losses, -1.42 units), while totals comprised 3 picks (1 win, 2 losses, -1.14 units). Over a brief three-day window, evaluating individual outcomes against market prices provides a clear accounting of performance without drawing sweeping conclusions from a tiny sample.

Long Odds and Total Setbacks

In total markets, the largest price discrepancy appeared in VfB Stuttgart's 4-1 win over 1. FC Köln. The model projected a 0.3292 probability on under 2.5 goals at a 3.400 decimal price, but the five-goal surge resulted in a 1.00 unit loss. The model also assigned a 0.5370 probability to under 2.5 goals in Genoa versus Como at a 1.676 decimal price, where Como’s 4-1 away victory pushed the match well over the line for another 1.00 unit loss.

Spread misses included Real Madrid -1.5 at a 2.900 decimal price (0.2569 model probability) against Real Betis, which failed when Real Betis earned a 1-0 home victory (-1.00 unit). Additionally, Auxerre +1.0 spread against Lyon carried a 2.010 decimal price and a 0.5251 model probability, but Lyon's 3-1 win handed the model another 1.00 unit defeat.

Cover Wins in Spread and Total Markets

Three picks generated positive returns during the evaluation window:

  • Como -0.5 spread (1.769 decimal price, 0.5981 model probability): Como secured a 4-1 victory over Genoa, yielding +0.77 units.
  • Monaco +1.5 spread (1.806 decimal price, 0.5857 model probability): Monaco won 2-1 outright at Paris Saint Germain, returning +0.81 units.
  • Toulouse vs. Lille under 2.5 total (1.855 decimal price, 0.5705 model probability): Lille captured a 1-0 away win, staying under the line for +0.86 units.

Scoreless Draw in San Sebastián

The final spread pick backed Real Sociedad -0.5 at a 1.926 decimal price with a 0.4711 model probability against Celta Vigo. The match ended 0-0, resulting in a 1.00 unit loss.

Real Sociedad created limited threats throughout the match. Beñat Turrientes logged 2 shots on target, while Mikel Oyarzabal, Yangel Herrera, and Jon Martin each recorded 1 shot on target. Orri Steinn Óskarsson, Ander Barrenetxea, Takefusa Kubo, Sergio Gómez, Igor Zubeldia, Jon Aramburu, and goalkeeper Álex Remiro all finished with 0 shots on target. On the other side, Celta Vigo forward Ferran Jutglà also registered 0 shots on target in the scoreless draw.

Market Picks Record (W-L-P) Units Win Rate
Spread 5 2-3-0 -1.42 0.400
Total 3 1-2-0 -1.14 0.333
Overall 8 3-5-0 -2.56 0.375

An eight-pick window across three days represents a small sample size. Short-term variance in soccer betting markets naturally produces fluctuations, and a handful of settled matches neither proves nor disproves the model's underlying edge.