Across seven games in the September 14–15 window, the Dixon-Coles v1 model posted a 7-5 record (+1.33 units) across 12 settled picks, achieving a 0.583 win rate. Spreads accounted for the larger portion of the profit, finishing 4-3 (+0.89 units), while total plays ended 3-2 (+0.44 units). Two days of fixtures represent a limited sample, so these outcomes serve strictly as an audit of where the market and model diverged rather than proof of a permanent edge.

Key Covers in Serie A and La Liga

The model generated its largest individual win in Serie A on September 14, where AS Roma picked up a 2-0 victory at Torino. The market offered AS Roma -1.5 at a 2.550 decimal price against the model's 0.4584 probability, delivering +1.55 units on the spread cover alongside a +1.00 unit return on Under 2.5 (2.000 price, 0.4051 probability).

In La Liga, Real Betis earned a 2-1 away win over Villarreal to cash both plays. Cucho scored for Real Betis as they covered +1.5 (+0.30 units at a 1.300 price against 0.6841 probability) and pushed the game over the 2.5 total (+0.65 units at a 1.649 price against 0.6261 probability). Meanwhile, Como beat Parma 2-1; Jacobo Ramón scored for Como, but Parma covered +1.5 (+0.98 units at a 1.980 price against 0.5868 probability), while Over 2.5 delivered +0.79 units (1.787 price, 0.4114 probability). On September 15, Valencia edged Alaves 1-0 to cover +0.5 (+1.06 units at a 2.060 price against 0.4393 probability).

Goal Explosions Drive Misfires

The model's losses came in matches where offensive output dramatically outpaced baseline projections. In Serie A, Inter defeated Udinese 5-3. Marcus Thuram recorded a goal and an assist for Inter, complemented by goals from team-mates Francesco Esposito, Nicolò Barella, and Carlos Augusto, while James Abankwah scored for Udinese. The eight-goal output sank both the Udinese +1.5 spread selection (-1.00 unit, 2.030 price, 0.5206 probability) and the Under 2.5 play (-1.00 unit, 2.500 price, 0.3426 probability).

In England, Leeds handily defeated Newcastle 4-1. Dominic Calvert-Lewin logged a goal and an assist for Leeds, while Noah Okafor and Jayden Bogle also found the net, sinking Newcastle 0.0 (-1.00 unit, 2.170 price, 0.4631 probability) and Under 2.5 (-1.00 unit, 2.140 price, 0.4950 probability). Finally, Rayo Vallecano beat Espanyol 2-1 on September 15 behind a goal and an assist from Álvaro García and a goal from Adrià Pedrosa, defeating the Espanyol +0.5 spread (-1.00 unit, 1.735 price, 0.5193 probability).

Market Performance Summary

Evaluating the final tally across market categories breaks down the short-window performance:

Market Picks Record Units Win Rate
Spread 7 4-3 +0.89 57.1%
Total 5 3-2 +0.44 60.0%
Total 12 7-5 +1.33 58.3%

Netting +1.33 units over 12 picks reflects a positive return, but a small handful of goals can alter micro-samples. Long-term tracking against closing lines remains the true measure of model performance.