Model Audit: Dixon-Coles Drops 5.73 Units in October Window

The dixon_coles_v1 model finished the Oct 14–16 window with a 7-11-0 record across 18 picks, losing 5.73 units across 10 games for a 0.389 win rate. A three-day sample of 18 outcomes is statistically small, so drawing definitive conclusions about long-term model edge from this stretch would be premature. The window's overall deficit was driven almost entirely by totals, while spread selections performed near breakeven.

Market Breakdown: Spreads vs. Totals

The model posted a 5-5-0 mark on spread picks, resulting in a minor loss of 0.54 units. Spread winners delivered steady implied value, headlined by Paris Saint Germain covering as a +0.0 pick in a 4-2 victory over Manchester City (0.6344 model probability, 2.040 decimal price) and Frosinone covering +0.0 in a 4-2 win over Sassuolo (0.7677 probability, 1.833 price). Eintracht Frankfurt (-0.5, 0.5991 probability) also hit in a 1-0 win over 1. FC Köln, alongside Bodo/Glimt (+0.5, 0.6689 probability) in a 1-0 victory against Borussia Dortmund.

Totals, however, generated the bulk of the deficit. The model went 2-6-0 on totals picks, losing 5.19 units. High-scoring matches repeatedly blew past under projections, while lower-scoring fixtures undermined over plays. Under 2.5 picks failed in Aston Villa's 6-0 victory against Fenerbahçe, Frosinone's 4-2 win over Sassuolo, and Shakhtar Donetsk's 3-1 victory over AEK Athens FC.

Market	Picks	Record	Units
Spread	10	5-5-0	-0.54
Total	8	2-6-0	-5.19
Total	18	7-11-0	-5.73

Probability Discrepancies and Pitch Action

The model's highest-confidence total pick landed in Feyenoord's 3-2 victory over Como, where Over 2.5 carried a 0.9058 model probability at 1.429 decimal odds. Conversely, the largest divergence between expectation and result came in Shakhtar Donetsk's match against AEK Athens FC: the model assigned an 0.8640 probability to Under 2.5 and an 0.8092 probability to AEK Athens FC +0.0, but Shakhtar won 3-1 to derail both positions.

Several high-scoring fixtures produced notable individual stat lines. Liverpool's 6-3 victory over Lask Linz featured three goals from Bradley Barcola, a goal and two assists from Jeremie Frimpong, a goal and an assist from Lewis Koumas, and a goal from Ronald Araújo. Florian Flecker scored twice for Lask Linz in the loss.

In Aston Villa's 6-0 win over Fenerbahçe, Ross Barkley recorded two goals and an assist, while Nicolas Jackson added two goals. PSG's 4-2 win at Manchester City saw Désiré Doué notch a goal and an assist, Ousmane Dembélé post a goal and an assist, and Maghnes Akliouche score once, offsetting two goals from Erling Haaland. Finally, VfB Stuttgart's 3-0 victory against Slovan Bratislava included a goal from Deniz Undav.