Soccer Model Results Audit: Oct 17–19 Performance

Across the three-day window from October 17 to October 19, 2026, the dixon_coles_v1 model generated a 30-37-4 record across 71 total picks in 43 soccer games, resulting in a net loss of -4.17 units. The model finished with a 0.448 win rate overall. Over a brief sample, these results reflect short-term distribution variance rather than a definitive statement on model efficacy.

Window Overview and Market Breakdown

The summary of all picks in the window shows 71 plays generated exclusively by dixon_coles_v1. Spread picks produced a 14-17-4 record across 35 plays, dropping -2.33 units. Game totals finished 16-20-0 over 36 plays, losing -1.84 units.

To understand the balance sheet, we examine the individual graded outcomes where model probabilities deviated most from market pricing.

Model High-Confidence Calls and Key Divergences

The highest probability evaluated was a 0.9050 mark on Hull City +1.0 spread against Fulham at a 1.714 decimal price; Fulham won 1-0, yielding a push for 0.00 units. Another high-probability projection was Napoli -0.5 spread at Venezia, where the model set a 0.7859 win probability against a 1.699 market price. Venezia secured a 1-0 home victory, giving the model a -1.00 unit loss.

In total markets, high-probability over selections delivered solid gains. Manchester City beat Ipswich 3-2, hitting Over 2.5 goals (0.7973 model probability, 1.391 decimal price) for +0.39 units as Erling Haaland scored twice. Bayer Leverkusen topped SC Freiburg 2-1 to cover Over 2.5 (0.7057 probability, 1.490 price) for +0.49 units.

Under selections delivered mixed returns across high-odds lines. FC Schalke 04 fell 0-1 to FSV Mainz 05, validating Under 2.5 (0.7643 probability, 2.420 price) for +1.42 units. A longshot Under 2.5 in Hamburger SV's 1-0 victory over VfB Stuttgart carried a 0.3761 probability at a 3.070 price, returning +2.07 units. Conversely, Bayern München's 6-1 win over RB Leipzig busted an Under 2.5 selection (0.2013 probability, 5.140 price) for a -1.00 unit loss, driven by Luis Díaz (3 goals, 1 assist), Harry Kane (1 goal, 2 assists), and Michael Olise (1 goal, 1 assist).

Standout Performances and Perspective

Individual performances shaped several total and spread outcomes across the window. Pedro Neto scored two goals in Chelsea's 2-0 win at Everton, defeating Everton +0.0 (0.5173 probability, -1.00 unit) while covering Under 2.5 (0.4664 probability, 2.320 price) for +1.32 units. In Werder Bremen's 2-2 draw with SC Paderborn 07, Niclas Füllkrug recorded two goals, sinking an Under 2.5 play (0.7316 probability, 2.490 price) for -1.00 unit.

Match	Pick Type / Side	Line	Model Prob	Price	Score	Result Units
Fulham vs. Hull City	Spread / Away	1.0	0.9050	1.714	1-0	0.00
Venezia vs. Napoli	Spread / Away	-0.5	0.7859	1.699	1-0	-1.00
Man City vs. Ipswich	Total / Over	2.5	0.7973	1.391	3-2	+0.39
Schalke vs. Mainz	Total / Under	2.5	0.7643	2.420	0-1	+1.42
HSV vs. Stuttgart	Total / Under	2.5	0.3761	3.070	1-0	+2.07

Evaluating a model over 71 picks across three days requires statistical perspective. A short window contains substantial random noise, and a -4.17 unit ledger neither validates nor invalidates a long-term analytical baseline.