Dixon-Coles v1 Results Audit: Oct 20-22 Performance

Across 17 matches between October 20 and October 22, 2026, the dixon_coles_v1 model generated 33 total picks, finishing with 20 wins, 9 losses, and 4 pushes for +8.12 units and a 0.69 win rate. A three-day window is a strictly limited sample size that proves neither a permanent edge nor a flaw, but examining where the model's probabilities diverged from market prices reveals how the output held up against on-pitch realities.

Totals Drive the Net Return

The totals market accounted for the bulk of the window's gains, producing a 12-5 record and +5.12 units across 17 selections. The largest unit gains came on long-priced under picks where the model identified playable expected value despite sub-50% win probabilities. In Inter's 1-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk, the model posted a 0.4121 probability on Under 2.5 against a 3.320 decimal price, returning +2.32 units. Similarly, FC Porto's 0-1 loss to PSV Eindhoven saw Under 2.5 cash at a 2.680 decimal price against a 0.4105 model probability for +1.68 units.

High-scoring outbursts produced the sharpest totals misses. The model evaluated Under 2.5 in Manchester City's clash with AEK Athens FC at a 0.5500 probability against a 3.910 decimal price, but Manchester City rolled to a 5-1 victory as Phil Foden erupted for 3 goals and 1 assist. In Napoli's 4-3 win over Bodo/Glimt, an Under 2.5 call (0.4335 probability, 2.680 price) fell flat in a seven-goal thriller. Scott McTominay scored 2 goals and Matteo Politano added 1 goal and 1 assist for Napoli, while Sondre Brunstad Fet notched 1 goal and 2 assists alongside a goal from Jens Petter Hauge for Bodo/Glimt.

Spreads and Individual Matchups

Spread picks finished 8-4-4 across 16 selections, adding +3.0 units. The model found solid alignment in decisive home performances. Club Brugge KV covered -0.5 (0.8972 probability, 1.971 price) in a 3-0 win over Lens, while Paris Saint Germain covered 0.0 (0.8437 probability, 1.990 price) in a 4-2 win over Barcelona, aided by Désiré Doué (1 goal, 1 assist). Real Madrid covered -1.5 (0.6288 probability, 1.735 price) in their 4-1 win over RB Leipzig, led by Kylian Mbappé (1 goal, 1 assist), and Levante covered 0.5 (0.6802 probability, 1.746 price) with a 3-1 win over Athletic Club as Brugui scored 2 goals.

Conversely, away spread calls faced notable setbacks. Manchester United 0.0 (0.5867 probability, 2.250 price) lost 4-1 at Como, where Nico Paz posted 2 goals and 1 assist. Lille -0.5 (0.5880 probability, 2.060 price) dropped a 2-4 result to Galatasaray despite 2 goals from Soriba Diaoune. In high-scoring draws, Bayern München drew 2-2 with Arsenal (Arsenal +0.5 covered at 0.6747 probability and 1.667 price; Harry Kane logged 1 goal and 1 assist for Bayern) and Liverpool drew push terms at -1.0 (0.8951 probability, 1.741 price) in a 4-3 win over Villarreal where Alexis Mac Allister scored 2 goals.

Window Summary by Market

Market	Picks	Wins	Losses	Pushes	Units
Spread	16	8	4	4	+3.00
Total	17	12	5	0	+5.12
Overall	33	20	9	4	+8.12