Dixon-Coles Model Audit: Nov 1-3 Soccer Results

Across 27 games between November 1 and November 3, 2026, the Dixon-Coles v1 model generated a 13-15 record with -0.46 units net profit across 28 total picks, reflecting a 0.464 win rate. The totals market carried the workload, producing +0.54 units on a 13-14 record across 27 plays, while the sole spread pick finished 0-1 for -1.0 units. Over a three-day window, a 28-pick sample serves as a routine snapshot of variance rather than evidence of a long-term model edge.

Market	Picks	Record	Units
Totals	27	13-14-0	+0.54
Spread	1	0-1-0	-1.00
Total	28	13-15-0	-0.46

Finding Value in Longshot Unders

The model's largest returns arrived on low-probability Under plays priced at steep decimal odds. On November 1, Como posted a 1-0 victory over Venezia; the model assigned Under 2.5 a 0.4461 probability against a 3.100 decimal price, returning +2.10 units. On November 3, Galatasaray secured a 2-0 home win over VfB Stuttgart, where Under 2.5 cashed at a 2.950 price against a 0.4190 model probability (+1.95 units).

However, long-shot under bets carried equal downside when matches opened up. Barcelona's 3-0 victory against Aston Villa defeated an Under 2.5 play assessed at a 0.2526 probability and a 4.640 price (-1.0 unit). Inter claimed a 3-0 away win over Feyenoord to spoil Under 2.5 (0.3890 model probability, 2.970 price), and Eintracht Frankfurt's 3-1 win against Hamburger SV missed Under 2.5 (0.3899 model probability, 2.910 price).

High-Confidence Hits and Costly Misses

At the top end of the model's confidence scale, totals yielded mixed results. Lask Linz routed Slovan Bratislava 4-0, covering Over 2.5 at a 0.9575 model probability and 1.444 price (+0.44 units). Paris Saint Germain delivered a 6-0 victory away at Villarreal to clear Over 2.5 (0.8781 model probability, 1.380 price). Strasbourg swept past Auxerre 5-1 to hit Over 2.5 (0.6423 model probability, 1.658 price), backed by two goals and an assist from Gessime Yassine alongside a strike from Dario Essugo.

Conversely, high-probability over picks stumbled in low-scoring affairs. Bodo/Glimt and Lille battled to a 0-0 draw, failing to hit Over 2.5 (0.8457 model probability, 1.500 price). Bayern München earned a 2-0 road win over Atletico Madrid, falling short of Over 2.5 (0.7675 model probability, 1.391 price).

Key Performances Shaping Final Scores

Individual performances directly dictated match outcomes and totals grades. Corentin Tolisso notched a goal and an assist in Lyon's 2-0 win over Angers, keeping the total Under 2.5 (0.4416 model probability, 2.500 price). On the other hand, Lassine Sinayoko provided two goals and an assist in Paris FC's 3-1 win over Monaco, pushing the total past Under 2.5 (0.4598 model probability, 2.250 price).

Attacking displays disrupted under plays elsewhere. Fiorentina's 4-2 win at Sassuolo went over Under 2.5 (0.4595 model probability, 2.310 price) despite two goals from Armand Lauriente for Sassuolo, as Alieu Njie recorded a goal and an assist and Mateo Pellegrino scored for Fiorentina. Giovanni Fabbian logged a goal and an assist in Parma's 3-0 win at Atalanta, sinking Under 2.5 (0.5544 model probability, 2.190 price). Marseille's 2-0 victory over Toulouse—with goals from Amine Gouiri (1G, 1A) and Amine Harit—missed Over 2.5 (0.6674 model probability, 1.641 price). Finally, Junior Messias posted a goal and an assist in Genoa's 2-1 win at Lecce to defeat Under 2.5 (0.6830 model probability, 1.645 price), and Gustav Isaksen scored in Lazio's 2-1 win over Cagliari, topping Under 2.5 (0.6219 model probability, 1.893 price).