Model Audit: Evaluating 10 NBA Picks From Oct 23-24

Across seven NBA games from October 23 to October 24, 2026, the xgb_prop_v4 model generated 10 total player prop picks. The slate finished with a 4-6 record (0.400 win rate), losing 2.51 units overall across ten total selections. Evaluating ten picks over two calendar days provides a narrow window, and this small sample size should not be taken as proof of long-term model performance in either direction.

High-Confidence Picks and Outlier Outputs

The model identified three picks with a high confidence rating, but all three failed to cover their under props.

On October 23, the model flagged Matisse Thybulle under 5.5 points at a price of -127 with a high confidence rating of 0.73. Matisse Thybulle finished with 13.0 points as the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Los Angeles Clippers 125-117. In that matchup, Austin Reaves recorded 28 points and Luka Dončić added 23 points for the Lakers, while Darius Garland scored 26 points for the Clippers.

On October 24, Jalen Johnson was selected for under 6.5 assists at -111 odds with a 0.68 confidence score. Jalen Johnson dished out 16.0 assists while posting 26 points and 9 rebounds in a 121-114 Houston Rockets victory over the Atlanta Hawks. Later that night, Josh Giddey carried a high confidence rating of 0.66 on an under 9.5 assists prop priced at -110. Josh Giddey recorded 10.0 assists in a 124-120 Washington Wizards win against the Chicago Bulls, while Trae Young added 25 points and 9 assists for Washington.

Winning Selections and Profitable Returns

Four prop selections delivered wins over the two-day period, led by two separate under calls on Dennis Schröder.

On October 23, Dennis Schröder stayed under his 5.5 assist line, finishing with 3.0 assists at +130 odds (confidence score 0.64) in a 128-81 Atlanta Hawks victory over the Charlotte Hornets. The following night on October 24, Dennis Schröder again hit the under on 6.5 assists at -160 odds (0.68 confidence score), delivering 4.0 assists in a 115-110 Charlotte Hornets win over the Miami Heat. That same game saw Brandon Miller score 34 points and Naz Reid contribute 23 points for Charlotte.

The remaining two wins also came from that Charlotte-Miami contest on October 24. Sion James stayed under his 7.5 point line, scoring 0.0 points at -115 odds (confidence score 0.53). Giannis Antetokounmpo stayed under his 0.5 three-pointers made line at -145 odds (confidence score 0.64), finishing with 0.0 three-pointers made.

Medium-Confidence Unders Near the Line

Three medium-confidence under picks fell short on October 23:

Jordan Walsh went over his 4.5 point line by finishing with 5.0 points at -126 odds (confidence score 0.68) as the Boston Celtics beat the New York Knicks 107-103. Jayson Tatum posted 36 points for Boston, while Karl-Anthony Towns finished with 22 points and 10 rebounds for New York.

In the Dallas Mavericks' 121-105 win over the Indiana Pacers, two under picks missed. Marcus Sasser recorded 3.0 assists against a line of 2.5 assists at +102 odds (confidence score 0.67). Cooper Flagg hit 2.0 three-pointers made against a line of 1.5 at -156 odds (confidence score 0.62). Kyrie Irving led Dallas with 24 points, while Pascal Siakam scored 23 points for Indiana.

Player	Stat	Line	Actual	Price	Confidence	Result
Dennis Schröder	Assists	5.5	3.0	+130	0.64	Won
Dennis Schröder	Assists	6.5	4.0	-160	0.68	Won
Sion James	Points	7.5	0.0	-115	0.53	Won
Giannis Antetokounmpo	3PM	0.5	0.0	-145	0.64	Won
Jordan Walsh	Points	4.5	5.0	-126	0.68	Lost
Marcus Sasser	Assists	2.5	3.0	+102	0.67	Lost
Cooper Flagg	3PM	1.5	2.0	-156	0.62	Lost
Matisse Thybulle	Points	5.5	13.0	-127	0.73	Lost
Jalen Johnson	Assists	6.5	16.0	-111	0.68	Lost
Josh Giddey	Assists	9.5	10.0	-110	0.66	Lost