NBA Model Results Audit: October 31 to November 3

Between October 31 and November 3, 2026, the model tracking window evaluated 17 picks across 13 NBA games, posting 12 wins, 2 losses, and 3 pushes for a total return of +8.36 units and an 0.857 win rate. Because four days of basketball outcomes represent a limited sample size, these figures serve as a plain record of settled picks rather than definitive proof of model calibration. The window was driven primarily by player props from the xgb_prop_v4 model alongside two point-spread positions from meta_v2.

Player Props Deliver Core Returns

The xgb_prop_v4 model generated 15 player prop picks during the window, finishing 10-2-3 for +6.36 units. Positive returns were anchored by Keon Ellis under 5.5 points (+130 price, 0.70 confidence score), which yielded +1.30 units after an actual value of 0.0 points. Jayson Tatum under 25.5 points (+102 price, 0.51 confidence score) generated +1.02 units as he finished with an actual value of 19.0 points in Boston's 93-109 loss to Houston.

Under props accounted for all ten prop wins. Ty Jerome under 6.5 assists (-108 price, 0.62 confidence score) covered with an actual value of 5.0 assists (+0.93 units) in Memphis's 134-135 loss to New Orleans, despite Ty Jerome posting a standout 40 points in 36 minutes. Andrew Nembhard delivered two winning under picks in Indiana's 90-98 loss to Brooklyn: under 9.5 assists (-112 price, actual value 4.0) for +0.89 units and under 3.5 rebounds (-143 price, actual value 3.0) for +0.70 units. Additional under covers included Sion James under 6.5 points (-112 price, actual value 4.0, +0.89 units), Jalen Johnson under 10.5 rebounds (-130 price, actual value 7.0, +0.77 units), Damian Lillard under 5.5 assists (-145 price, actual value 4.0, +0.69 units), and Kris Dunn under 1.5 three-pointers made (-250 price, actual value 0.0, +0.40 units).

The prop market produced two losses. Jarrett Allen under 1.5 assists (-112 price, actual value 4.0) failed in Cleveland's 136-111 win over Milwaukee (-1.0 unit). Paul Reed split two props in Detroit's 124-91 win against Charlotte, missing on under 2.5 assists (-150 price, actual value 4.0, -1.0 unit) while winning on under 8.5 rebounds (-130 price, actual value 5.0, +0.77 units). Three props resulted in pushes with an actual value of -1.0: Rudy Gobert under 10.5 rebounds (+108 price), Obi Toppin over 12.5 points (+108 price), and Anthony Black under 4.5 assists (-120 price).

Spread Picks Clean Up Side Markets

The meta_v2 model posted a 2-0 record on point spreads, adding +2.0 units across two home favorites. On November 1, the Los Angeles Lakers covered -4.50 (+100 price, 1.00 confidence score) in a 131-125 victory over the Toronto Raptors, winning by an actual margin of 6 points. Luka Dončić led Los Angeles with 45 points, 15 rebounds, and 6 assists, while Scottie Barnes scored 29 points for Toronto.

On November 2, the meta_v2 model backed the Los Angeles Lakers again at -1.50 (+100 price, 1.00 confidence score) against the Miami Heat. Los Angeles covered with a 138-117 victory (21-point margin), where Austin Reaves scored 27 points for the Lakers and Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 30 points with 12 rebounds for Miami.

Window Performance Breakdown

A summary of all picks settled during the window demonstrates the breakdown between prop and spread markets:

Market	Model	Picks	Wins	Losses	Pushes	Net Units
Player Prop	xgb_prop_v4	15	10	2	3	+6.36
Spread	meta_v2	2	2	0	0	+2.00
Total	—	17	12	2	3	+8.36

Other notable individual efforts during the window included Victor Wembanyama scoring 43 points in San Antonio's 121-111 win against Minnesota (where Ayo Dosunmu scored 27 points), Tyrese Maxey scoring 38 points alongside Grayson Allen's 27 points in Philadelphia's 109-104 win over Charlotte, Cade Cunningham scoring 33 points in Detroit's win, Evan Mobley logging 27 points for Cleveland, and Anthony Davis scoring 27 points in Washington's 103-94 win at Orlando.