Across 26 soccer matches from Sept. 5 to Sept. 7, 2026, the dixon_coles_v1 model registered 37 settled picks, finishing with 16 wins, 21 losses, and 0 pushes for a net loss of -4.56 units and a 0.432 win rate. Spreads accounted for 19 picks, ending at 9 wins and 10 losses (-2.1 units), while totals comprised 18 picks, finishing at 7 wins and 11 losses (-2.46 units). Three days of results represent a brief window; these short-term figures summarize what transpired without proving or disproving a long-term quantitative edge.

High-Confidence Divergences and Line Covers

When the model showed strong disagreement with bookmaker odds, performance split across the slate. The largest model probability gap on a spread occurred in the Hull City vs. Aston Villa match: the model evaluated Hull City (+0.5) at a 0.9794 probability against a decimal price of 1.847. A 0-0 draw secured the cover (+0.85 units), while the game's Under 2.5 goals selection (0.7552 model probability, 2.010 decimal price) also won (+1.01 units). In a similar line setup, Nottingham Forest (+0.5) carried an 0.8062 model probability against a 1.470 decimal price and covered via a 0-0 draw (+0.47 units).

In London, Arsenal (-0.5) earned a 2-1 victory over Chelsea, matching a 0.6710 model probability at 1.714 decimal odds (+0.71 units), with the Over 2.5 goals line (0.5651 model probability, 1.877 decimal price) also hitting (+0.88 units). Conversely, Manchester City failed to cover a -1.5 spread (0.7433 model probability, 1.550 price) in a 1-0 win over Coventry (-1.00 unit), though the Under 2.5 goals line (0.4594 model probability, 3.100 price) yielded a +2.10 unit gain.

High-Score Outbursts and Longshot Results

Several fixtures turned into lopsided scoring displays that disrupted totals picks. Hamburger SV suffered a 0-5 loss to 1. FSV Mainz 05, failing to hit an Under 2.5 goals pick (0.5742 model probability, 2.270 price). Phillip Tietz scored two goals, Sheraldo Becker recorded one goal and two assists, and Phillipp Mwene added one goal and one assist for Mainz. In Spain, Deportivo Alavés defeated Osasuna 5-2, defeating an Osasuna +0.5 spread selection (0.5472 model probability, 1.645 price). Lucas Boyé scored three goals and Mariano added a goal and an assist for Alavés, while Ante Budimir provided two goals for Osasuna.

Other matches delivered notable scorelines:

  • Udinese vs. Lazio: Over 2.5 goals (0.3828 model probability, 2.500 decimal price) cashed in a 1-2 final (+1.50 units).
  • Villarreal vs. Deportivo La Coruña: Finished 2-3, where a longshot Deportivo La Coruña -2.5 spread selection (0.0033 model probability, 2.590 price) lost (-1.00 unit) despite Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang logging a goal and two assists for the visitors and Nicolas Pépé scoring for Villarreal.
  • Fulham vs. Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace claimed a 2-3 away win with two goals from Tyrick Mitchell, offsetting a goal by Fulham's Joshua King.
  • Fiorentina vs. Torino: Torino won 1-2 away with Ché Adams scoring once.
  • SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig: Bremen won 3-1, aided by a goal and an assist from Marco Grüll.

Market Performance Summary

Market Picks Wins Losses Pushes Net Units Win Rate
Spread 19 9 10 0 -2.10 0.474
Total 18 7 11 0 -2.46 0.389
Overall 37 16 21 0 -4.56 0.432