Across 17 soccer matches from September 20 to September 22, 2026, the Dixon-Coles v1 model generated 27 settled picks, posting a 13-14-0 record (48.1% win rate) for a net return of +0.9 units. The overall positive result was built entirely on game totals, which insulated the ledger from a steep drawdown in match spreads. Over a three-day window, these outcomes illustrate how specific price gaps function in short stretches without proving a permanent market edge.

Totals Deliver High-Yield Returns

The model's performance on totals proved decisive during the window, generating +6.2 units across 14 picks with a 9-5-0 record. Several successful calls landed on long decimal prices where the model assigned modest probabilities that still implied strong value relative to bookmaker odds.

In Bundesliga action, Bayer Leverkusen defeated RB Leipzig 2-0. The model identified under 2.5 goals with a 0.3457 probability against a 3.050 market price, returning +2.05 units. A similar setup occurred in the Premier League, where Liverpool earned a 1-0 away victory over Bournemouth; under 2.5 goals covered at a 2.680 decimal price behind a 0.3889 model probability (+1.68 units). In Fulham's 1-1 draw against Manchester United—where Matheus Cunha scored for the visitors—under 2.5 goals delivered +1.56 units at a 2.560 price with a 0.4081 model probability.

In Serie A, Parma earned a 2-1 victory over Genoa to cover over 2.5 goals (+1.66 units) on a 0.2732 model probability at a 2.660 price. Additional totals wins included Auxerre's 2-1 win over Stade Brestois 29 (over 2.5 goals, 0.5730 prob, 1.917 price), Leeds and Crystal Palace playing to a 0-0 draw (under 2.5 goals, 0.5288 prob, 2.060 price), Real Sociedad's 3-2 victory at Valencia (over 2.5 goals, 0.5289 prob, 1.980 price), and Villarreal's 3-1 win against Levante (over 2.5 goals, 0.6778 prob, 1.490 price). In Valencia's defeat, Carlos Soler logged a goal and an assist for Real Sociedad while Aaron Mayol scored for Valencia. For Villarreal, Alberto Moleiro posted one goal and two assists.

Spread Markets Encounter Drawdown

Conversely, spread recommendations struggled, ending the window at 4-9-0 for a loss of -5.3 units across 13 picks. Several high-probability projections failed to cover comfortable lines.

Atalanta +1.0 dropped a -1.00 unit loss in a 2-0 defeat to Juventus, where Gleison Bremer scored for the hosts despite the model projecting a 0.7049 cover probability at a 1.752 price. Lecce +1.5 fell -1.00 unit in AC Milan's 3-0 victory—highlighted by goals from Christian Pulisic and Adrien Rabiot—against a 0.6653 model probability at 1.877 decimal odds.

A high-scoring 5-3 match between Manchester City and Sunderland resulted in losses on both Sunderland +1.5 (-1.00 unit, 0.5786 prob, 1.885 price) and under 2.5 goals (-1.00 unit, 0.5075 prob, 2.630 price). Brian Brobbey netted three goals on four shots on target for Sunderland, while Antoine Semenyo scored twice with an assist and Rayan Cherki added a goal for Manchester City.

Elsewhere, Real Madrid -0.5 fell 2-1 to Atletico Madrid (Jonathan David scored for Atletico), costing -1.00 unit on a 0.4354 model probability at 2.000 odds. Lille -0.5 lost 2-1 to Nice despite Mohamed Amoura scoring for Nice, failing at a 0.5293 probability (2.010 price). Real Betis -1.5 drew 1-1 at Deportivo La Coruna, missing on a long 0.1200 probability projection at a 5.000 price.

Spread winners were limited to Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 (+0.99 unit, 0.5391 prob, 1.990 price), Crystal Palace +0.5 (+1.00 unit, 0.5089 prob, 2.000 price), Frosinone +1.0 (+0.93 unit in a 2-0 win over Como, 0.6145 prob, 1.926 price), and Marseille +1.5 (+0.78 unit in a 1-2 loss to Paris Saint Germain, 0.7105 prob, 1.775 price).

Window Accounting

Market Picks Record Win Rate Units
Spread 13 4-9-0 30.8% -5.3
Total 14 9-5-0 64.3% +6.2
Overall 27 13-14-0 48.1% +0.9

A single weekend of matches serves as an informative snapshot rather than a final ruling on model calibration. While longer-priced totals captured substantial upside, spread variance pulled down overall performance across the slate.