Model Audit: October 11–13 Betting Results

Across a 28-game slate from October 11 through October 13, 2026, the dixon_coles_v1 model posted a 20-24-4 overall record, netting -2.44 units across 48 total settled picks for a 0.455 win rate. A clear divergence in market performance shaped the three-day ledger: spread selections finished in positive territory (+1.06 units on 12-10-4), while totals proved challenging (-3.5 units on 8-14-0).

Spreads find solid footing in key spots

Spread picks carried the workload, producing a positive return across 26 selections. High-confidence model spots aligned with decisive wins on the pitch. Atalanta covered their -1.0 spread at 1.926 decimal price in a 3-1 home win over Venezia (0.7002 model probability), led by Nikola Krstović with two goals and an assist alongside a goal from Franck Kessié.

Real Betis delivered as a -1.0 home favourite at 2.060 price (0.5070 model probability), overwhelming Osasuna 5-2 behind two goals from Isco and one from Abde Ezzalzouli. Elsewhere, Arsenal cleared a -1.5 spread at 1.781 price (0.5857 model probability) in a 3-0 victory over Lille, and Manchester City covered a 0.0 line at 1.917 price (0.5841 model probability) in a 3-0 away win against Liverpool.

Not every strong spread projection landed. Newcastle fell 4-1 at Coventry on a -0.5 line at 2.010 price (0.7221 model probability), despite Sven Botman scoring for the visitors while Sidiki Cherif scored for Coventry. Additionally, Crystal Palace defeated Nottingham Forest 3-1, failing to cover Forest on a 0.0 line at 1.980 price, with Jefferson Lerma scoring for Palace. Nice also topped Strasbourg 2-1 to defeat a Strasbourg 0.0 line at 2.050 price, supported by a goal from Jonathan Clauss.

High-scoring games derail totals market

The totals market bore the brunt of the weekend's deficit, dropping 3.5 units across 22 picks. The model repeatedly sought value on under positions with extended odds, but several fixtures turned into high-scoring shootouts.

Barcelona's 4-1 victory over Galatasaray defeated an Under 2.5 pick priced at 4.400 decimal (0.2627 model probability). Similarly, Club Brugge KV pulled off a 4-3 win at Inter, ruining an Under 2.5 selection at 2.720 price (0.3911 model probability), though Brugge covered their +1.5 spread at 1.926 price (0.6247 model probability). Real Betis and Osasuna combined for seven goals, undoing an Under 2.5 pick at 2.140 price.

Scoreline volatility also wiped out totals in draws. Levante and Sevilla played to a 3-3 draw—featuring a goal from Adrián de la Fuente for Levante and contributions from Robbie Ure (one goal, one assist) and Félix Correia (one goal) for Sevilla—pushing Levante's 0.0 spread at 1.909 price. Hull City and Everton drew 2-2, covering Hull's +0.5 spread at 1.800 price (0.7833 model probability) with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall recording a goal and an assist, but blowing past the 2.5 total.

Small samples and long-term context

A single window of 48 picks across 28 matches offers a short-term snapshot rather than a definitive verdict on model efficacy. The dixon_coles_v1 model frequently identified long-shot prices on totals where market implied probabilities were low, creating wide theoretical edges that naturally come with high variance over small samples. Evaluating model quality requires hundreds of settled outcomes; three days of play simply show where the breaks fell across a brief run of fixtures.