dixon_coles_v1 Settled Picks Audit: Oct 23-24, 2026

Across the two-day window from October 23 to October 24, 2026, the dixon_coles_v1 model logged 39 picks across 22 soccer games, posting a 17-20-2 record and returning 0.27 net units. That equates to a 0.459 overall win rate across all graded selections. Evaluating model performance over a two-day window represents a very small sample size, so these settled results report what occurred without establishing definitive long-term model edge.

Totals Drive Small Profit as Spreads Lag

A market breakdown reveals a sharp divergence between total and spread selections. Total picks delivered positive returns, going 11-9-0 across 20 picks for 5.63 units. Conversely, spread picks struggled, finishing 6-11-2 across 19 picks for -5.36 units.

Several high-priced total recommendations generated positive returns where model probability differed noticeably from implied market prices. In 1. FC Köln’s 0-0 draw against FC Schalke 04, the model assigned a 0.7865 probability to under 2.5 goals against a 2.460 decimal price, returning 1.46 units. The model also won on Schalke’s +0.5 spread (0.6046 probability, 1.833 price, +0.83 units). In Borussia Dortmund’s 1-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt, the model backed under 2.5 goals at a 0.3075 probability against a 3.370 price, generating 2.37 units. Similarly, SC Paderborn 07’s 1-0 win over Hamburger SV hit on under 2.5 goals (0.6732 probability, 2.470 price, +1.47 units).

However, low-scoring projections fell flat in VfB Stuttgart’s 3-2 loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach. The model estimated a 0.2970 probability for under 2.5 goals at a 3.760 price, yielding a loss (-1.00 unit). Ermedin Demirović scored two goals for Stuttgart, while Wael Mohya and Joe Scally each recorded one goal and one assist for Gladbach to push the match total well over the line.

Individual Match Results and Standout Performers

Spread calls experienced mixed outcomes across top fixtures. In Aston Villa’s 2-1 victory against Manchester City, Villa covered the +1.0 spread at a 0.5987 model probability and 1.714 decimal price (+0.71 units), led by two goals from Nicolas Jackson. Torino covered the -0.5 home spread against Monza at a 0.5573 probability and 2.040 price (+1.04 units) in a 3-2 victory featuring a goal from Kian Fitz-Jim; the match also hit over 2.5 goals (0.6669 probability, 2.110 price, +1.11 units).

In France, Lens earned a 2-1 victory over Paris FC, covering the 0.0 spread (0.6533 probability, 1.781 price, +0.78 units) with Florian Thauvin scoring a goal and adding an assist. Meanwhile, Stade Brestois 29 lost 2-1 to Nice, failing to cover the -0.5 spread (0.5073 probability, 2.200 price, -1.00 unit) as Elye Wahi logged one goal and one assist for Nice.

In Italy, Como beat Sassuolo 2-0 as Anastasios Douvikas scored twice. Sassuolo failed to cover the +1.5 spread (0.5847 probability, 1.787 price, -1.00 unit), though under 2.5 goals hit at a 0.4214 probability and 2.760 price (+1.76 units). Napoli drew 3-3 with AS Roma, resulting in a push on Roma's 0.0 spread (0.6075 probability, 1.781 price, 0.00 units) despite Scott McTominay scoring two goals for Napoli.

Other notable results included RB Leipzig’s 4-0 win over SV Elversberg, where Rômulo scored twice; Elversberg failed to cover the +1.5 spread (0.6118 probability, 1.990 price, -1.00 unit), but over 2.5 goals hit (0.8058 probability, 1.280 price, +0.28 units). Elche won 3-0 against Rayo Vallecano, covering the +0.5 spread (0.5255 probability, 2.060 price, +1.06 units) behind a goal from Fernando Niño. Finally, FC Augsburg drew 1-1 with Union Berlin, failing to cover the -0.5 spread (0.6153 probability, 1.870 price, -1.00 unit) despite a goal from Han-Noah Massengo.