Dixon-Coles v1 Audit: -0.13 Units Over 45 Soccer Totals

Across 45 total picks settled between November 4 and November 13, 2026, the dixon_coles_v1 soccer model posted a 22-23 record (0.489 win rate) for a net return of -0.13 units with zero pushes. Every selection in this audit period targeted goal totals, offering a clean look at how model probabilities stacked up against closing market prices. A ten-day stretch of 45 plays represents a small sample size, so these results report short-term performance without claiming a definitive edge or flaw in the underlying framework.

High-Yield Longshots and High-Probability Hits

The window’s largest winning payout arrived in Ligue 1 on November 7, where dixon_coles_v1 evaluated Paris Saint Germain versus Estac Troyes Under 2.5 goals at a 0.3132 model probability against a 3.820 decimal market price. Paris Saint Germain earned a 1-0 home victory, netting +2.82 units. Another notable under cash landed the same day when Arsenal edged Hull City 1-0; the model estimated Under 2.5 at 0.6411 probability against a 2.600 price for a +1.60 unit return. Inter also shut out Como 2-0 on November 8, hitting an Under 2.5 pick projected at 0.4512 probability against a 2.620 price (+1.62 units).

When the model backed high-probability over picks, several goal-heavy fixtures delivered. On November 4, Lens hosted Como in a ten-goal fixture that ended 1-9. The model assigned an Over 2.5 probability of 0.8543 against a 1.550 price (+0.55 units), led by standout displays from Anastasios Douvikas (3 goals, 1 assist) and Nico Paz (1 goal, 2 assists). That same day, Viking handled Sabah FA 4-1 to cover an Over 2.5 pick priced at 1.440 against a 0.9279 model probability (+0.44 units), powered by Erik Botheim (2 goals), Zlatko Tripić (1 goal, 1 assist), and Henrik Falchener (1 goal). AEK Athens FC fell 2-3 to Real Madrid to clear Over 2.5 at 0.7792 probability and a 1.330 price (+0.33 units), with Aboubakary Koita (1 goal, 1 assist) and Stavros Pilios (1 goal) contributing to the scoreline.

High-Scoring Matches and Costly Setbacks

Despite longshot gains, several projected under trends were blown open by high-scoring matches. On November 8, Manchester United and Aston Villa fought to a 4-4 draw, easily clearing an Under 2.5 pick listed at a 0.4286 model probability and a 2.470 market price (-1.0 unit). Similarly, 1899 Hoffenheim defeated FC Schalke 04 2-1 on November 8, failing to deliver on an Under 2.5 pick where the model held a strong 0.7499 probability against a 2.690 price (-1.0 unit). On November 7, RB Leipzig swept FC Augsburg 5-2, overriding a longshot Under 2.5 wager priced at 3.820 with a 0.2789 model probability (-1.0 unit).

High-scoring contests also derailed unders in European action on November 4. Fenerbahçe topped Liverpool 3-2, defying an Under 2.5 pick backed at a 0.4625 model probability and 2.690 price (-1.0 unit) despite Archie Brown recording 1 goal and 1 assist for Fenerbahçe. FC Porto defeated Napoli 4-1, sinking an Under 2.5 selection at 0.5562 model probability and a 2.100 price (-1.0 unit), as Gabriel Veiga posted 1 goal and 1 assist for Porto while Scott McTominay scored for Napoli. Meanwhile, RB Leipzig dropped a 2-3 decision to Manchester City, going over an Under 2.5 line set at a 0.4651 model probability and 3.260 price (-1.0 unit), with Antonio Nusa and Erling Haaland both finding the net.

Summary Sample of Audited Total Picks

Game Date	Matchup	Pick Side	Model Prob	Dec. Price	Score	Result (Units)
2026-11-07	Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes	Under 2.5	0.3132	3.820	1-0	+2.82
2026-11-07	Arsenal vs Hull City	Under 2.5	0.6411	2.600	1-0	+1.60
2026-11-04	Lens vs Como	Over 2.5	0.8543	1.550	1-9	+0.55
2026-11-08	Manchester United vs Aston Villa	Under 2.5	0.4286	2.470	4-4	-1.00
2026-11-07	RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg	Under 2.5	0.2789	3.820	5-2	-1.00